Key Highlights

  • The Australian dollar bought 68.78 US cents at 4.00 pm on 11 November 2026.
  • The trade-weighted index stood at 63.8, below the 65.2 average assumed for 2026.
  • A weaker dollar can push up the local price of imported goods, including fuel.
  • The RBA holds the Exchange Rate flat from the date its forecasts are finalised.

The Australian dollar's trade-weighted value on 11 November sat beneath the level the Reserve Bank built into its November forecasts, a gap worth understanding even though one day's reading proves little.

Every set of Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) forecasts relies on assumptions about things the RBA does not control. One of the most important is the exchange rate. In the November 2026 Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP), the RBA assumed the trade-weighted index (TWI) of the Australian dollar would average 65.2 in 2026. As at 4.00 pm on 11 November 2026, the RBA website showed the TWI at 63.8.

That is a gap of 1.4 index points.

The numbers on the RBA website

The RBA publishes a daily snapshot of exchange rates. As at 4.00 pm on 11 November 2026, the readings were:

  • AUD/USD: 0.6878, or 68.78 US cents
  • Trade-weighted Index: 63.8
  • Chinese renminbi (CNY): 4.5908
  • Japanese yen (JPY): 109.20
  • Euro (EUR): 0.6160

The US dollar rate is the figure most people recognise, because it is widely quoted and relevant to overseas travel and online shopping. But for economic analysis, the TWI is often more informative.

What the TWI measures

The trade-weighted index measures the value of the Australian dollar against a basket of currencies, weighted according to how much Australia trades with each country. A movement in the TWI therefore gives a broader sense of whether the Australian dollar is strengthening or weakening against the currencies of the economies it actually does Business with, rather than against the US dollar alone.

A higher TWI means the Australian dollar buys more foreign currency on average; a lower TWI means it buys less. Because imported goods are priced in foreign currencies, a lower TWI can, over time, make imports more expensive in Australian dollar terms.

How the RBA's assumption is set

The RBA does not try to forecast the exchange rate. Instead, its forecasts assume the TWI stays unchanged from its level at the time the forecasts are finalised. For the November 2026 SMP, that was 28 October 2026.

The resulting TWI assumptions are:

  • 2025/26: 66.1
  • 2026: 65.2
  • 2026/27 to 2028: 65.3

The 2026 figure of 65.2 is a calendar-year average, which blends earlier months of the year with the assumed level for the remainder. The later figures of 65.3 reflect the TWI being held flat at around its late-October level.

Against that backdrop, the 11 November reading of 63.8 is below the assumption. In other words, in the fortnight or so after the forecasts were finalised, the dollar's trade-weighted value appears to have eased relative to the level the RBA used.

Why it matters for inflation

The exchange rate is one channel through which global prices reach Australian households. If the Australian dollar weakens, the local price of imported goods, including fuel, tends to rise, all else being equal. If it strengthens, the reverse can happen.

That link is relevant now because energy features prominently in the November forecasts. The Outlook notes that "The assumed oil price in the December quarter is 35 per cent higher than assumed in August". Oil is priced internationally, so the Australian dollar's value affects how much of any global price change flows through to the bowser.

The RBA forecasts headline Inflation to peak at 4.5 per cent in the December 2026 quarter, and trimmed mean inflation to be 3.6 per cent at the same point. Those forecasts were built on the TWI assumption of around 65. A sustained move below that level would, other things equal, add a little to imported price pressure relative to the forecasts. A move back up would do the opposite.

It is important not to overstate the point. A single day's reading can reverse quickly, and the RBA's forecasts involve many moving parts. The gap between 63.8 and 65.2 is a signal worth noting, not a forecast revision.

The broader picture from the SMP

The SMP's Financial Conditions chapter offers context on how the currency has moved through the year. It notes that "the nominal exchange rate has appreciated since the start of the year". So even with the more recent reading sitting below the forecast assumption, the RBA's assessment is that the dollar is higher than it was in early 2026.

The same chapter describes financial conditions overall as "restrictive, but with various cross-currents". Alongside the exchange rate, it points to Australian Government Bond yields that are "around their highest levels in many years", housing prices that "have declined by more than expected", and business Credit growth that "remains very encouraging".

Exchange rates are influenced by a wide range of factors, including Interest Rate differences between countries, Commodity prices and global risk sentiment.

Where the cash rate fits

On 3 November, the Monetary Policy Board raised the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.85 per cent, effective 4 November. Governor Michele Bullock said at her media conference that "Monetary policy cannot impact global oil prices," and that the Board was "not tightening monetary policy because of the direct impact of oil prices on inflation."

The Board's concern, in her words, is that "It is critical that we stop expectations for high inflation from becoming embedded in price-setting decisions". Exchange rate movements that raise Import prices are one of the factors that could feed into those expectations, which is why the currency is watched closely even though the RBA does not target it.

The next cash rate decision is due at 2.30 pm on 8 December 2026. Before then, the October monthly CPI indicator is released on 25 November, following the 4.3 per cent annual headline reading for the September month.

The bottom line

On 11 November the Australian dollar bought 68.78 US cents, and the trade-weighted index stood at 63.8, below the 65.2 average the RBA assumed for 2026 in its November forecasts. Because the RBA holds the exchange rate flat from the date its forecasts are finalised, any subsequent move creates a gap between assumption and reality. A lower dollar can add to imported inflation, but one day's reading is a data point, not a trend, and the RBA notes the currency has still appreciated since the start of the year.