In the 11 days between Michele Bullock's parliamentary testimony and her post-decision media conference, the unemployment rate she quoted ticked up by a tenth of a percentage point, and the cash rate moved too.

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock made two major public appearances in the second half of September 2026. On 18 September she delivered an opening statement to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics in Canberra. On 29 September she fronted the media after the Monetary Policy Board lifted the cash rate target to 4.60 per cent.

In the first, she cited an unemployment rate of 4.5 per cent. In the second, the figure she cited was 4.6 per cent, reflecting later labour market data. The change is small, but tracking how the Governor described the jobs market across those two dates offers a useful window into how the RBA weighs employment against inflation.

The 11 days, step by step

18 September, Canberra. Bullock told the parliamentary committee: "The unemployment rate – at 4.5 per cent – is low by historical standards." She described the labour market as close to, but a little tighter than, full employment, and said the share of the population in employment was near a record high. At that point the cash rate target was 4.35 per cent, and she said the cumulative increase in 2026 was 75 basis points, 50 of them since the February parliamentary hearing. She also said monetary policy works with a lag and the full effects of recent rises were not yet visible. The Board's forecast at the time was for inflation to return to the midpoint of the 2–3 per cent target by late 2027.

Between the appearances. Later labour market data showed a higher unemployment rate. The material relied on here records only that 4.6 per cent was cited on 29 September; it does not provide further detail on the release.

29 September, 2.30 pm AEST. The Board announced a unanimous 25 basis point increase in the cash rate target to 4.60 per cent, effective 30 September. Its statement said labour market conditions had eased broadly as expected, while capacity pressures remained.

29 September, 3.30 pm AEST. At the media conference, Bullock said "the unemployment rate has risen from 3.5 per cent over the past couple of years to 4.6 per cent". Explaining what that means, she said: "What it often means is that people might be taking longer to find a job." She also noted that over a million jobs had been created in recent years.

What changed, and what did not

Comparing the two appearances side by side:

  • The number moved. The cited unemployment rate went from 4.5 per cent to 4.6 per cent.
  • The cash rate moved. It went from 4.35 per cent to 4.60 per cent, taking total 2026 tightening to 100 basis points across four increases.
  • The emphasis shifted slightly. In Canberra the Governor stressed the level, calling it low by historical standards. At the media conference she put more weight on the trajectory, from 3.5 per cent to 4.6 per cent over a couple of years, and on what it means for job seekers.
  • The core assessment did not change. Across both appearances the RBA's message was that inflation is too high and the labour market remains, if anything, a little on the tight side.

On inflation, the backdrop was also consistent. In Canberra, Bullock said headline and underlying inflation had been around or a little above 3½ per cent over the past year. By the media conference, the monthly CPI showed headline inflation of 4.0 per cent over the year to August 2026, while Bullock said "the underlying inflation rate's been about 3.5 per cent for the past six months". The trimmed mean was 3.6 per cent in the June quarter. The 4.0 per cent figure is a headline measure, not an underlying one.

Reading a 0.1 point move

A single tenth of a percentage point is a modest shift. The Board's statement described the easing in labour market conditions as broadly expected, and the Board still judged that a further increase in the cash rate was warranted.

The August 2026 minutes give useful context. At that meeting, held on 10–11 August, members noted that the labour market had eased somewhat more than expected, but that unemployment "remained low". The forecasts recorded in those minutes had unemployment rising gradually to 4.8 per cent by end-2028.

That provides a reference point for the 4.6 per cent figure: it sits 0.2 percentage points below the end-2028 forecast. What it does not provide is a guide to the next decision. Those forecasts were prepared before the September increase, and the RBA has said its next forecast update is due in November.

The Governor herself was clear on that front: "I'm not going to give you forward guidance." The Board said it remains attentive to the data and "will continue to do what it considers necessary" to return inflation to target.

What comes next on the calendar

Several scheduled events will add to the picture before the Board meets on 2–3 November:

  • 13 October, 11.30 am AEDT: minutes of the September meeting. Their contents are not yet known.
  • 15 October: the RBA Annual Report 2026, after 3.00 pm AEDT.
  • 18–21 October: appearances by Assistant Governor Christopher Kent, Head of Payments Policy Ellis Connolly and Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser.
  • 28 October: the September CPI.
  • 3 November, 2.30 pm: the next cash rate decision.

The bottom line

Between 18 and 29 September, the unemployment rate cited by Governor Bullock rose from 4.5 per cent to 4.6 per cent, and the cash rate rose from 4.35 per cent to 4.60 per cent. The RBA framed the jobless increase as an expected, gradual easing, with Bullock describing it in terms of people taking longer to find work rather than a sharp deterioration.

The episode shows that a small rise in unemployment, on its own, did not dislodge the Board's view that inflation needed further action. How the labour market evolves from here, and how the Board reads it, remains to be seen.