Key Highlights

  • On 3 November the Board announces its decision alongside new forecasts in the Statement on Monetary Policy.
  • The minutes of the November meeting are released on 17 November.
  • The final decision of 2026 is on 8 December, with minutes on 22 December and the next decision on 9 February 2027.

Between Melbourne Cup Day and the week before Christmas, the Reserve Bank has two interest rate decisions, two sets of minutes and a new set of forecasts on its calendar.

Summer plans tend to revolve around holidays, school breaks and end-of-year celebrations. For households with a mortgage, businesses watching their borrowing costs and savers keeping an eye on returns, there is another calendar worth knowing: the Reserve Bank of Australia's.

The cash rate target currently sits at 4.60 per cent, effective 30 September 2026, after the Monetary Policy Board raised it by 25 basis points in a unanimous decision. That was the fourth increase of 2026, taking the cumulative rise this year to 100 basis points. What the Board does next has not been decided, and the coming weeks contain several moments when it will either act or explain itself.

Here is how the season lines up.

3 November: decision day, and new forecasts

The Monetary Policy Board meets on 2–3 November 2026. Its decision is due at 2.30 pm AEDT on 3 November, which also happens to be Melbourne Cup Day.

This is not just a decision day. At the same time, the RBA releases its Statement on Monetary Policy, containing new forecasts. Governor Michele Bullock is then scheduled to hold a media conference at 3.30 pm.

The backdrop to that decision is the latest inflation data. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on 28 October 2026 that headline CPI rose 4.3 per cent in the 12 months to September, up from 4.0 per cent in the 12 months to August. Trimmed mean (underlying) inflation was 3.6 per cent, and CPI excluding volatile items was 3.7 per cent. All of these are above the RBA's target range of 2–3 per cent, with the midpoint of 2.5 per cent as its reference point.

The Board has not said what it will do. In its September statement, it said it would be "increasing the cash rate target further if needed" and that "the Board will be attentive to the data and the evolving assessment of the outlook and risks". At her September media conference, the Governor said: "I'm not going to give you forward guidance."

In her opening statement to the Senate Economics Legislation Committee on 28 October, she offered a view on inflation, though not on the decision: "Inflation will therefore likely be higher than was our base case in August." That remark referred to global energy prices being much higher than had been assumed in the August forecasts.

4 to 17 November: digesting the decision

The days after the decision bring more information. According to the RBA calendar:

  • 4 November: Chart Pack published.
  • 5 November: Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser delivers the Sir Leslie Melville Lecture at the Australian National University.
  • 9 November: Assistant Governor (Economic) Sarah Hunter speaks at the UBS Australasia Conference.
  • 12 November: Monetary Policy Board member Marnie Baker AM speaks at the ARCA Credit Summit.
  • 17 November: Minutes of the November meeting are released, and Governor Bullock appears on a panel at the ASIC Annual Forum.

The 17 November minutes are the second key date in the headline. Minutes generally give a fuller account of the Board's discussion than the decision statement, which can help in understanding the reasoning behind whatever the Board decides on 3 November.

Later in the month, the calendar lists Renée Fry-McKibbin, a Monetary Policy Board member, at CAMA on 20 November, a speech by David Jacobs on 25 November, the RBA Bulletin on 26 November and a speech by Clare Noone on 30 November. Governor Bullock then takes part in a fireside chat at the ABE Annual Dinner on 1 December.

8 December: the last decision of 2026

The Board meets again on 7–8 December, with the decision due at 2.30 pm on 8 December. That will be the final rate decision of the year. The minutes of that meeting follow on 22 December, just before Christmas.

After that, the calendar quietens. The next Board meeting is on 8–9 February 2027, with the decision on 9 February 2027.

The practical effect is that, between early November and early February, the Board has two scheduled opportunities to adjust the cash rate. Whatever happens on 3 November, the 8 December meeting will provide another assessment before the summer break.

Why these dates matter to households

The cash rate influences borrowing costs across the economy, and the Governor has been frank about its effects. At her September media conference she said: "Those who have mortgages, yes, this clearly impacts them and it hurts them." She also said: "Pay packets don't go as far as they used to, and that's why we need to stop this high inflation."

The RBA's October 2026 Financial Stability Review offers some context on how households are coping. It stated that "Most Australian households with mortgages remain well placed to manage more difficult conditions", with around 2 per cent of variable-rate owner-occupiers estimated to have a cash-flow shortfall, and the median borrower able to cover over a year of scheduled payments from buffers.

Assistant Governor Hunter, in a 60 Minutes interview broadcast on 25 October, put the RBA's intent this way: "We're not trying to put people out of their homes." She also said that oil-driven price pressure was still coming through and that things would get "a little bit" worse before they improve, while declining to signal the next decision.

For borrowers, the dates in this calendar are when any change to the cash rate would be announced. Borrowers may wish to understand how their own loan terms respond to changes in the cash rate, which varies between lenders and products.

The bottom line

Three dates anchor the RBA's summer. On 3 November, the Board announces its decision alongside new forecasts in the Statement on Monetary Policy. On 17 November, the minutes of that meeting add detail. On 8 December, the Board makes its final decision of the year, with minutes on 22 December and the next decision not until 9 February 2027.

The Board has made no decision yet for 3 November, and has said it will be attentive to the data. For anyone whose budget is sensitive to interest rates, these are the dates worth marking.