Key Highlights

  • The RBA's next cash rate decision is at 2.30 pm on 8 December 2026.
  • The minutes of the November Board meeting are due on 17 November.
  • The October monthly CPI indicator is scheduled for release on 25 November.
  • Labour market and housing data will also help shape the Board's next move.

Between now and the Reserve Bank's next cash rate decision at 2.30 pm on 8 December, a dense run of minutes, speeches and Inflation data will Fill in the picture the Board will be working from.

Counting from 12 November 2026, there are 26 days until the Monetary Policy Board's next scheduled announcement. The cash rate target currently sits at 4.85 per cent, following the 25 basis point rise announced on 3 November and effective from 4 November. Whether the Board holds, raises or lowers at its next meeting is a matter for the Board, and nothing in the RBA's published material commits it to a particular outcome.

What can be mapped is the information that will arrive in the meantime.

The Board's stated starting point

The November statement set out where the Board stands. It said "the Board judged that a further tightening in financial conditions is warranted" and that "Inflation is now forecast to remain elevated through much of 2027". It closed with a general commitment rather than a schedule: "The Board will continue to do what it considers necessary to bring inflation sustainably back to target."

Governor Michele Bullock used similar language at her media conference: "Returning inflation to target is our priority, and we will do what is necessary to achieve that."

That framing matters for the weeks ahead. The Board has not signalled a pre-set path; it has said its decisions will respond to how inflation and the economy evolve. The decision itself was also not unanimous, with six members voting to raise and three voting to hold at 4.60 per cent.

The calendar, week by week

The RBA website lists the following scheduled events between now and the December decision:

  • 17 November, 10.00 am AEDT: Governor Bullock on a panel at the ASIC Annual Forum in Sydney.
  • 17 November, 11.30 am AEDT: Minutes of the November 2026 Monetary Policy Board meeting.
  • 19 November: Payments System Board meeting.
  • 20 November: Monetary Policy Board member Renée Fry-McKibbin at CAMA in Canberra.
  • 25 November: Monthly CPI indicator for October; and a speech by David Jacobs, Head of Domestic Markets, at the Australian securitisation conference in Sydney.
  • 26 November: RBA Bulletin.
  • 8 December, 2.30 pm: Cash rate decision.

One event has dropped off. Marnie Baker AM, a Monetary Policy Board member, had been scheduled to speak at the ARCA Credit Summit on the Gold Coast on 12 November. That appearance was cancelled, with the RBA noting: "Unfortunately, unforeseen family circumstances prevent Marnie's attendance at this event."

The Payments System Board meeting on 19 November deals with the payments system rather than the cash rate, so it is a separate track from monetary policy.

The October CPI indicator

The single most anticipated data release in the window is the monthly CPI indicator for October, due on 25 November. The most recent reading, for the September month, showed headline annual inflation of 4.3 per cent.

It is important not to confuse that monthly figure with the quarterly numbers. Over the year to the September quarter, headline CPI was 3.9 per cent and trimmed mean (underlying) inflation was 3.7 per cent. The monthly indicator and the quarterly CPI are different measures, and the trimmed mean is different again.

The Statement on Monetary Policy, finalised on 28 October, set expectations for where inflation is heading: "Headline inflation is expected to peak at 4.5 per cent in the December 2026 quarter". The forecast for trimmed mean inflation in December 2026 is 3.6 per cent. The October monthly reading will therefore be read against a forecast that already anticipates headline inflation rising further before it eases.

Oil is a big part of that forecast. The Outlook chapter notes: "The assumed oil price in the December quarter is 35 per cent higher than assumed in August". Governor Bullock was clear, however, that "we are not tightening monetary policy because of the direct impact of oil prices on inflation." Her concern was second-round effects: "It is critical that we stop expectations for high inflation from becoming embedded in price-setting decisions".

Other signals the Board has flagged

Inflation is not the only input. The RBA's November documents point to several other areas it is monitoring:

  • The labour market. "The Unemployment rate rose by more than expected to average 4.6 per cent in the September quarter." The RBA linked the rise largely to higher-than-expected labour supply, while "employment growth held up in the September quarter as expected".
  • Housing. "housing prices have declined by more than expected", according to the Financial Conditions chapter.
  • Financial conditions. These were "judged to be restrictive, but with various cross-currents", with government bond yields "around their highest levels in many years".
  • The exchange rate. The trade-weighted index was 63.8 at 4.00 pm on 11 November, below the Statement's 2026 average assumption of 65.2.

What the minutes may and may not offer

The minutes on 17 November are the first official account of the November discussion to be published. They arrive with particular interest given the six-to-three vote.

The bottom line

The 26 days to 8 December contain one major inflation release, the November minutes, a Bulletin and several public appearances by RBA officials. The Board has said it "will continue to do what it considers necessary to bring inflation sustainably back to target", but it has not committed to any particular move. With headline inflation forecast to peak at 4.5 per cent in the December quarter and unemployment already higher than expected, the information arriving over the coming weeks will form part of the evidence the Board considers when it meets.