Highlights

  • Qube Holdings shares edged up AUD 0.004, or 0.099%, to AUD 5.015 on volume of 1,557,044 shares on 20 April 2026, as the company released a FY26 outlook update disclosing two distinct earnings headwinds.
  • The Middle East conflict is expected to reduce FY26 EBITA by approximately AUD 10–20 million, driven primarily by higher unrecovered fuel costs, lower agricultural and forestry export volumes, and disruption to the Logistics and Infrastructure business unit.
  • Adverse weather events in Q3 FY26 — including cyclones affecting Western Australian ports and severe storms in New Zealand — are estimated to have reduced FY26 underlying EBITA by a further AUD 3–5 million, though Qube confirmed it continues to expect underlying earnings growth (NPATA and EPSA) for FY26.

 

Qube Holdings (ASX:QUB) shares added AUD 0.004, or 0.099%, to AUD 5.015 on 20 April 2026, on volume of 1,557,044 shares. The bid was AUD 5.010 and the offer AUD 5.020, reflecting a narrow spread and orderly trading. At AUD 8.86 billion in market capitalisation, Qube is one of Australia's largest logistics infrastructure companies, and the near-flat price response to a disclosure quantifying two distinct earnings headwinds suggests the market viewed the combined impact as manageable relative to the company's scale, diversification, and retained FY26 growth commitment.

Middle East Conflict: Estimated AUD 10–20 Million EBITA Impact

Qube disclosed that, based on recent trading and the current outlook, the earnings impact of the Middle East conflict is expected to be approximately AUD 10–20 million in EBITA for FY26. The company identified three specific drivers: higher fuel costs due to timing lags in recovering those costs from customers (with an expected offsetting benefit in FY27 when fuel prices normalise); lower agricultural export volumes due to higher shipping costs making Australian agriculture less competitive in Middle East markets; and lower forestry exports for similar reasons.

The largest earnings impact is expected to be within the Logistics and Infrastructure business unit, with a more limited effect on the Ports and Bulk business unit. Qube noted that its earnings contributions from associates are not expected to be significantly impacted in FY26. Importantly, the company characterised the Middle East-related factors as largely temporary or timing-related, with most expected to reverse in FY27 assuming the conflict ends.

Qube confirmed it has robust supply agreements with two of Australia's major fuel suppliers and has continued to receive fuel supplies in line with normal trading volumes, with no operational interruption currently expected. The company also has strong contractual protections in place across most of its operations, providing commercial levers to mitigate the impact of higher costs, though with an acknowledged timing lag between incurrence and recovery.

Adverse Weather: Estimated AUD 3–5 Million EBITA Impact

In Q3 FY26, Qube's operations were impacted by several severe weather events in Australia and New Zealand. Cyclones caused operations to cease in some regions for up to a week, with Qube's Western Australian Ports and Bulk operations particularly affected. In New Zealand, severe storms in January caused major flooding that impacted volumes at several of Qube's forestry locations. The total estimated FY26 EBITA impact from these weather events is AUD 3–5 million.

Qube characterised the weather impacts as non-recurring by nature. Combined with the Middle East factors — which are largely timing-related — the company's overall outlook narrative frames both headwinds as transitory and not indicative of structural deterioration in the business.

FY26 Outlook Confirmed and MAM Scheme Update

Despite the combined AUD 13–25 million EBITA headwind from Middle East and weather events, Qube confirmed it continues to expect to deliver underlying earnings growth (NPATA and EPSA) in FY26. The extent of that growth remains conditional on the quantum of additional fuel costs that cannot be recovered in FY26 and any deterioration in activity levels across key customers.

On the MAM (Macquarie Asset Management) Scheme, Qube confirmed the revised trading outlook has no impact on the agreed Scheme between the MAM Consortium and Qube. The parties continue working toward securing all necessary third-party approvals within the timetable outlined in the 16 February 2026 announcement.

Conclusion

Qube Holdings' 20 April 2026 FY26 update quantified two earnings headwinds — an estimated AUD 10–20 million EBITA impact from the Middle East conflict and an estimated AUD 3–5 million from adverse weather — while confirming that the company still expects underlying earnings growth in FY26. Shares were nearly unchanged at AUD 5.015, up just 0.099%, on volume of 1.557 million shares and a market cap of AUD 8.86 billion. Both headwinds are characterised by management as largely temporary or timing-related, with expected reversals in FY27. The MAM Scheme process is unaffected.