Highlights

  • December soybean meal settled at $329.70 per short ton on Wednesday, up $3.20, near the session high.
  • USDA cut 2026/27 US soybean ending stocks by 15 million bushels to 300 million, a stocks-to-use ratio of 6.5%.
  • USDA left soybean meal production unchanged at 65.8 million short tons and held its meal price forecast at $340.
  • December soybean oil rose 111 points to 63.88 cents per pound on Wednesday, outpacing the gain in meal.

The bullish surprise in USDA's soybean report landed in the beans, not the meal. December soybean meal settled at $329.70 per short ton on Wednesday 11 November, up $3.20 and near the session high, after Tuesday's $5.80 gain to $326.50. That is modest next to soybeans, and the meal Balance Sheet itself barely changed. For crushers Bunge (NYSE:BG) and ADM (NYSE:ADM), what matters is the Margin between the beans they buy and the products they sell.

What USDA Said on 10 November

The November estimates raised the 2026/27 US soybean Yield by 0.2 bushels to 53.3 bushels per acre, below the roughly 55 some traders expected. USDA raised exports by 25 million bushels and cut ending stocks by 15 million to 300 million bushels, a stocks-to-use ratio of 6.5%. The season-average soybean price forecast rose 10 cents to $12.10 per bushel.

For meal, the changes were small. USDA left the crush unchanged at 2,780 million bushels and meal production at 65.8 million short tons. Domestic meal use was trimmed by 67,000 tons and ending stocks by 50,000 tons to 400,000 tons, exports held at 22.7 million tons and the meal price forecast stayed at $340 per short ton.

Meal futures rose largely in sympathy as the soy complex rallied on short covering and bargain buying.

Why Meal Has Lagged

One explanation lies in how crushing works. Processors crush soybeans for both oil and meal, and when vegetable oil Demand is strong, plants can run hard and push out large volumes of meal. December soybean oil rose 111 points to 63.88 cents per pound on Wednesday, outpacing meal, although USDA cut its 2026/27 oil price forecast by 2 cents to 68 cents. This oil-led dynamic is a widely cited explanation, not a figure USDA quantified this month.

Global Trade and the Dollar

South American Supply matters for meal exports. Brazil's exporters association projected November soybean exports at 4.37 million tonnes, up from 3.33 million a week earlier, while China's October soybean imports fell to a seven-month low of 7.35 million tonnes. On the demand side, USDA reported private sales of 150,000 tonnes of US soybeans to Mexico on 10 November. A dollar index at a 1.5-year high could make US meal less competitive abroad if sustained.

Crushers and Feed Buyers

For processors, the meal price matters less than the crush margin, the combined value of meal and oil minus the cost of beans, and a rally led by soybeans rather than products can narrow it.

Bunge processes oilseeds into oils and proteins across more than 50 countries. On 10 November it announced Enerseed, a joint venture with GDM to develop novel oilseeds for low-carbon fuel feedstocks, underlining the role of oil demand in its crushing strategy. ADM, a processor and animal-nutrition supplier, published third-quarter results in early November. Both diversify across origination, trading and other products, spreading exposure beyond meal.

Feed buyers sit on the other side. Pilgrim's Pride, the chicken producer majority-controlled by JBS, uses meal as a core feed ingredient, and its third-quarter adjusted EBITDA fell 39.9%, with Europe pressured by higher input costs.

Outlook and What to Watch

The balance sheet leaves little slack. Projected ending meal stocks of 400,000 tons are small against production of 65.8 million tons, so any disruption to crushing, whether from plant outages, logistics or weaker margins, could tighten supplies quickly.

Prices could firm if export demand improves, South American weather disrupts planting or crush slows. They could weaken if heavy crushing for oil keeps meal ample, if Argentina sells aggressively, or if livestock feed demand softens. Watch weekly export sales, Brazil's crop update on Friday 13 November, the monthly NOPA crush report and the 10 December USDA estimates. The December contract's first notice day arrives at the end of November, shifting attention to January.