Highlights

  • ICE January robusta closed at $3,245 per tonne on Wednesday, down $5, just above last week's 2.5-year low of $3,140.
  • Vietnam's coffee exports rose 18.8% year on year to 1.569 million tonnes in the first ten months of 2026.
  • Arabica trades near $5,835 per tonne against robusta near $3,200, giving roasters reason to blend more robusta.
  • EU deforestation rules apply to large and medium-sized companies from 30 December 2026, with no further coffee delay identified.

Robusta is hugging the bottom of its range just as Vietnam's harvest reaches its seasonal peak. The ICE January 2027 contract closed at $3,245 per tonne on Wednesday 11 November, down $5, with March at $3,220, not far above last week's 2.5-year low of $3,140. November is peak harvest in the Central Highlands, new-crop Supply is rising and an EU deforestation rule looms on 30 December. Keurig Dr Pepper (NASDAQ:KDP), which now owns a major European coffee buyer, is one of the companies watching.

Choppy, Not One-Way

The market is testing the bottom of a range around $3,200 to $3,300 that one broker identified for the January contract in early November. January settled at $3,228 on 4 November, up $18, and the market closed higher in four of five sessions in the week to 6 November, but on 10 November it closed at $3,250, down $17.

Vietnam's Harvest and Farmgate Prices

Vietnam is the world's largest robusta producer, and growers are bringing larger volumes to market. Central Highlands farmgate prices were 83,800 to 84,300 dong per kg on 12 November, down 500 to 1,000 dong from the previous morning.

Some growers may hold coffee back while prices sit near 83,000 to 84,000 dong. If farmers delay selling, that could slow the flow of new-crop beans and limit pressure on futures; if they sell heavily to raise cash, the effect could be the reverse. Export pace has been strong, with shipments up 18.8% year on year to 1.569 million tonnes in the first ten months of 2026, a figure that covers all coffee types.

Exchange Stocks

ICE robusta stocks are rising sharply after the contract hit its lowest since March 2024 in late October and lost 6% over the month. Certified stocks stood at 6,642 lots of 10 tonnes each.

The Arabica Spread

Robusta is used mainly in instant coffee and in espresso and supermarket blends, so its price relative to arabica affects how much roasters use. March arabica closed at 264.65 US cents per lb, about $5,835 per tonne, well above robusta's level of around $3,200. A wide gap gives roasters a reason to use more robusta, but arabica is also falling as Brazil's supply outlook improves, and if the gap narrows, part of that support for robusta Demand could fade.

EUDR: The 30 December Deadline

The EU Deforestation Regulation is the main policy issue for robusta exporters. The rules apply to large and medium-sized companies from 30 December 2026 and to micro and small companies from 30 June 2027, with soluble coffee and some other products following from 30 December 2027. The European Commission's May 2026 review kept the dates unchanged, and no further delay to the coffee dates has been identified.

The EU is a major market for Vietnamese robusta. Exporters will need to provide geolocation data showing coffee was not grown on land deforested after 31 December 2020.

Company Exposure

Keurig Dr Pepper completed its Acquisition of JDE Peet's on 1 April 2026 and plans to spin off a Global Coffee Co. JDE Peet's sells roast-and-ground and instant coffee with large operations in Europe, so it is both a major green coffee buyer and directly affected by EUDR rules. Lower robusta prices could reduce input costs, but retail prices and hedging determine how much reaches margins.

Westrock Coffee roasts coffee and makes extracts for brands and retailers, and largely passes bean costs on, which is why lower green coffee prices cut its third-quarter net sales by more than they affected earnings.

What to Watch Next

Support could come from rain-delayed harvests, slower farmer selling or EUDR-related disruption. Pressure could come from a fast harvest, rising certified stocks or a narrowing discount to arabica. These are outcomes to monitor, not forecasts. Watch Vietnam's November export data, ICE certified stocks, Central Highlands farmgate prices, EU guidance ahead of 30 December and Brazil's coffee export figures.