Highlights

  • ICE London No. 5 white sugar rose 1.3% to $511.50 a tonne on Wednesday, reversing part of Tuesday's fall.
  • Brazilian sugar output fell 41.6% in early September because of rain, which could end the harvest early.
  • Associated British Foods posted a £47 million adjusted sugar operating loss and expects a larger loss in 2027.
  • Rogers Sugar raised its full-year Volume forecast to 745,000 tonnes and is expanding refining capacity by about 100,000 tonnes.

White sugar has clawed back part of Tuesday's loss. ICE London No. 5 rose 1.3% to $511.50 a tonne on Wednesday 11 November, while raw sugar in New York gained 1.1% to 18.29 US cents a pound after touching a five-week low the day before. Behind the bounce sit two opposing forces: cheaper energy that tempts Brazilian mills towards sugar, and rain that has slashed their output. For Associated British Foods (LSE:ABF) and Rogers Sugar (TSX:RSI), the answer matters in very different ways.

Two Competing Influences

Lower energy prices this week reduced the incentive for Brazilian mills to turn cane into ethanol rather than sugar, which tends to weigh on sugar. Against that, Brazil's sugar output has been sharply lower this year because of excessive rain, with production down 41.6% in the first half of September. Indian output is lower after hot, dry weather, El Niño could hurt production elsewhere in Asia, and southern China is too dry.

Brazil's centre-south mills can switch cane between sugar and ethanol: when fuel prices fall, more cane tends to go to sugar, and when oil rises the reverse can happen. Neither link is mechanical, and weather effects on this season's harvest have so far been larger.

Europe's Beets and the White Premium

White sugar is refined and ready to use, so it usually trades at a premium to raw. On Wednesday's figures the raw price works out at about $403 a tonne, implying a premium of roughly $108, though that approximate calculation may compare different contract months.

European Supply has been a key support. The EU's crop-monitoring service cut its sugar beet Yield expectations by a further 7% in September after heat and drought in France, Germany, Poland and parts of central and eastern Europe.

Associated British Foods: A Producer Under Pressure

ABF is the UK's main listed white sugar producer. Its sugar division includes British Sugar, the sole processor of the UK beet crop, Azucarera in Spain and Illovo in southern and eastern Africa, with capacity of about 4 million tonnes a year.

Results for the year to 12 September 2026, published on 3 November, showed sugar Revenue down 4% to £1,966 million and an adjusted operating loss of £47 million, against a £1 million loss a year earlier. The company blamed low European sugar prices.

ABF expects a larger adjusted sugar operating loss in the 2027 financial year, of £70 million to £170 million, citing higher gas costs, El Niño risks to African production and currency moves, especially in Malawi. It expects European production to fall significantly but the market to stay in surplus in the short term, and said the recent rise in world sugar prices should benefit future years. With grocery, ingredients and Primark alongside, the sugar loss is diluted at group level.

Rogers Sugar: A Refiner's Margin

Rogers Sugar, parent of Lantic, refines imported raw cane sugar and processes beet at Taber in Alberta. Its raw sugar is priced off New York's No. 11 contract, so London white prices are not a direct input, though a wide white premium can signal healthy refining margins.

Third-quarter fiscal 2026 sugar volumes were about 187,855 tonnes, down 2%, with an adjusted gross Margin of $245 a tonne. Its $280 million to $300 million LEAP expansion should add about 100,000 tonnes of refined capacity in the first half of calendar 2027.

What Could Shift the Balance

White sugar could firm if Brazil's harvest ends early, El Niño reduces Asian crops or the EU beet harvest disappoints further. It could fall if energy prices stay low and Brazilian mills keep favouring sugar, if exporters such as Pakistan add supply, or if Demand stays weak. Both lists are possibilities, not predictions.

Watch twice-monthly Brazilian cane crush data, India's crushing season, further EU beet estimates and fund positioning in New York raw sugar. Rogers discusses fourth-quarter results on 26 November.