Highlights

  • Palladium futures traded at $1,029.50 an ounce on Wednesday evening, rebounding sharply from a 16-month low a week earlier.
  • Forecasts split, with one expecting a 345,000-ounce 2026 Deficit and another a surplus driven by soft car demand.
  • Sibanye-Stillwater lowered 2026 US guidance to 245,000-255,000 ounces after a five-week strike cut third-quarter output 19%.
  • Palladium trades at a 32.6% discount to platinum, though engineering changes by carmakers take years rather than months.

On 4 November, palladium recovered above $935 an ounce but stayed near its lowest level since June 2025. The next day it jumped about 5%. By 10 November futures were trading around $1,050, near a three-week high, and on Wednesday the front contract was quoted at $1,029.50 at 19:55 New York time. It is a sharp rebound set against a hardening US rate outlook and conflicting forecasts on surplus or deficit. For Sibanye-Stillwater (NYSE:SBSW), whose US output guidance has just been cut, the swings arrive as its Montana volumes shrink.

A Thin Market Swings Hard

Spot palladium rose 1.8% to $1,043.00 earlier in the US session. Palladium futures trade in much smaller volumes than gold, so modest flows can move the price sharply. The metal also remains cheap relative to platinum, and that gap could encourage carmakers to revisit catalyst designs, although such engineering changes take years.

Rates, the Dollar and the Car Market

The macro pressure is the same as for other precious metals. October US consumer prices rose 0.4% against a 0.3% forecast, traders priced an 87.1% likelihood of a quarter-point Fed rise in December, and the dollar index stood near its highest since April 2025.

Demand is dominated by vehicles. The auto sector accounts for more than 80% of palladium Demand and faces pressure from electric-vehicle adoption, weak sales and tighter consumer spending, though hybrids still use catalytic converters. A September forecast put 2026 automotive palladium demand at 7.695 million ounces, down from 7.890 million in 2025.

Surplus or Deficit?

Forecasters disagree on the balance. One expects a 2026 deficit of 345,000 ounces as mine Supply falls, while another sees a surplus because of soft car demand, and some analysts say the market may be shifting from Scarcity to surplus. Those are published views, not settled outcomes.

On supply, Russia's output is constrained, and Nornickel, the largest producer, has warned that an overhaul at one of its plants could extend into 2028. Further disruption to Russian or South African output could tighten the market, while rising recycling could loosen it.

The US Trade Case and Sibanye-Stillwater

Trade policy has been a key issue for US producers. The US Commerce Department set final duties of 132.83% (anti-dumping) and 109.1% (countervailing) on unwrought palladium from Russia, but on 29 May the US International Trade Commission found the domestic industry was not materially injured, ending the investigation. The petitioners were Sibanye-Stillwater and the United Steelworkers union. US imports of Russian palladium had risen to 27.6 tonnes in 2024 from 20.4 tonnes in 2022, and with the case closed, Russian metal continues to compete directly with US mine supply.

Sibanye-Stillwater owns palladium and platinum mines in Montana. A five-week strike that ended on 7 October cut US third-quarter PGM output by 19% to 59,417 ounces, and 2026 US guidance came down from 280,000-300,000 ounces. Its South African PGM and gold operations provide diversification.

Other Listed Exposure

Valterra Platinum, formerly Anglo American Platinum, produces palladium within its South African PGM basket, where third-quarter output fell 6% to 804,300 ounces. Because platinum and rhodium are also in the basket, palladium is only one driver of revenue, and costs largely in rand make the Exchange Rate as important as the dollar price. Johnson Matthey is exposed differently: as a refiner, fabricator and market analyst rather than a miner, it is affected more by metal volumes, refining activity and Working Capital than by price alone.

What to Watch Next

The US producer price index for October is due on Friday 13 November at 08:30 ET, and the Fed decides on 9 December. Traders will also watch the weekly CFTC report, NYMEX Warehouse stocks, vehicle sales and production data and any Nornickel update. Sibanye-Stillwater's next operating update will show whether US output has recovered after the strike.