Key Highlights

  • Brent crude settled at USD 104.77 on November 2, 2026, a fall of USD 8.66 or 7.63%, with an intraday low of USD 103.28, a sharp swing for United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO) holders.
  • WTI settled at USD 96.46, down 7.36% and back under USD 100, its biggest one-day decline since July 27.
  • The slide followed signs of diplomacy: Qatari mediators travelled to Tehran and President Trump said a deal could be reached, though no ceasefire has been agreed.
  • On November 3 Brent settled at USD 103.60, down 1.1%, after trading between above USD 107 and below USD 101.

What Drove the Oil Move

Crude fell on Monday, November 2, 2026, after signals that Iran and the United States might negotiate. Brent settled at USD 104.77, down 7.63%, while WTI settled at USD 96.46, down 7.36%. One published account gave Brent as USD 104.33, down 8.01%, so the exact close is approximate. Oil is priced on expected supply, and the Strait of Hormuz carries roughly a fifth of global seaborne oil, so any sign of de-escalation strips out part of the risk premium, while any sign of escalation puts it back. According to one published analysis, physical Supply barely changed on the day, which points to sentiment and positioning as the driver.

How United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO) Tracks Prices

United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO) aims to follow WTI crude through futures contracts, so its results track WTI rather than Brent, and it can diverge from spot prices because of how contracts are rolled. WTI fell 7.36% on November 2, so the fund would be expected to move in the same direction, although this article did not verify its closing move. Equity markets responded unevenly: energy shares dropped 3.96%, while airlines and cruise operators rose. The Nasdaq-100 fell 1.39% the same day because of AI concerns rather than oil.

Risks and What to Monitor

No ceasefire has been signed, and talks could still collapse. On November 3 Brent traded more than USD 6 between its intraday high and low, a sign of how jittery the market is. A deal could push crude lower, while a breakdown or shipping disruption could send it back above USD 110, as seen in earlier phases of the conflict. Brent also remains well above USD 100, so the market still prices meaningful supply risk. The dollar, weekly inventory figures, refinery Demand and OPEC decisions all bear on crude's direction. United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO) can be highly volatile in such conditions, and its futures structure means results may diverge from the headlines. Read the fund's documents before drawing conclusions from daily moves. Contract rolling, storage costs and the shape of the futures curve can all shift returns over time, regardless of the spot price.

Where Things Stand

Brent fell 7.63% because markets priced a better chance that Iran diplomacy would ease supply risk, not because physical supply changed on the day. United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO) follows WTI futures, which dropped 7.36%, and it faces the same headline risk. The picture remains unsettled: no ceasefire exists, Brent is still above USD 100, and the following session swung sharply. The next catalysts are the outcome of talks, Hormuz shipping, weekly inventories and any statements from Washington or Tehran.