Highlights

  • January soybeans closed at $12.3075 a bushel on Wednesday, up 2.75 cents, extending gains made after USDA's report.
  • USDA cut 2026/27 ending stocks to 300 million bushels from 315 million, well below the trade average of 336 million.
  • Bunge's Soybean Processing and Refining unit earned adjusted EBIT of $547 million, up from $337 million.
  • ADM's Crushing sub-segment earned $311 million in the third quarter, compared with $13 million a year earlier.

Soybeans held their post-report gains, but the bigger story is the shape of the curve. January 2027 soybeans closed at $12.3075 a bushel on Wednesday 11 November, up 2.75 cents, after USDA cut its stocks estimate by more than traders expected. A week earlier they had closed at $12.0225. For crushers Bunge (NYSE:BG) and ADM (NYSE:ADM), the relationship between beans, meal and oil matters more than the outright price.

USDA Tightens the Balance Sheet

USDA raised its national soybean Yield to 53.3 bushels per acre from 53.1, putting production at 4.574 billion bushels. All 15 firms in a Dow Jones survey had expected a record yield, averaging 53.6 bushels and 4.601 billion bushels of output, so the crop came in smaller than the trade forecast.

Demand estimates moved the other way. USDA raised exports to 1.72 billion bushels from 1.695 billion and put the crush at 2.78 billion. Ending stocks fell to 300 million bushels from 315 million, well below the trade average of 336 million, and the season-average farm price rose 10 cents to $12.10.

The futures curve is inverted. New-crop November 2027 soybeans closed at $11.8825, more than 40 cents below January, suggesting the market sees current supplies as tighter than those expected after next year's harvest. World Supply remains large, with global ending stocks at 123.5 million tonnes, Brazil's crop at 186 million and Argentina's at 50 million.

Soybean Oil, China and Brazil

Wednesday's small gain came mainly from soybean oil, which followed crude higher and a rally in palm oil, while beans added little on their own fundamentals. Higher vegetable oil prices increase the value of each bushel crushed, which can support crushers' bids for soybeans.

Chinese Demand is a weaker point. Chinese buyers took only 7.35 million tonnes of soybeans in October, a seven-month low, and USDA's higher export forecast depends on continued Chinese buying and better demand from other importers. Brazil's crop agency forecasts a 2026/27 crop of about 181.6 million tonnes, and a weaker real is encouraging Brazilian farmers to sell early. A firm dollar after hotter US Inflation makes US beans less competitive. These are commentators' explanations of recent moves, not confirmed causes.

How Listed Companies Are Exposed

Bunge is one of the largest soybean processors, and processing margins matter more to it than the soybean price itself. Its Soybean Processing and Refining segment posted adjusted EBIT of $547 million in the third quarter, with gains in North America, Argentina and Brazil. It kept 2026 adjusted EPS guidance at $9.25-9.75 but expects soybean processing to be slightly weaker. Higher soybean costs only squeeze its margins if meal and oil prices Fail to keep pace.

ADM also crushes soybeans at scale. It attributed its improvement to a "constructive North American biofuels Margin environment" linked to biofuel policy and higher energy prices, while South American crush margins were weaker because Brazil delayed changes to its biofuels policy. ADM's grain merchandising and nutrition businesses provide some diversification.

Nutrien supplies crop inputs to soybean growers in the Americas. It expects stable to modestly higher soybean and corn area in Brazil, and says tightening global fundamentals should support grower Economics in 2027. Soybeans need less nitrogen than corn, so its exposure comes mainly through potash, phosphate and retail.

What Could Change the Outlook

Prices could find support if export sales confirm USDA's higher forecast, vegetable oil stays firm or the January yield estimate is cut. They could weaken if Chinese demand stays soft, Brazil harvests a large crop early next year or the dollar strengthens further.

Weekly export sales, delayed by Veterans Day, are due on Friday alongside Brazil's updated crop outlook. The expiring November contract's final trading days may add Volatility at the front of the curve, and Friday's CFTC report will show how funds have repositioned. The next USDA estimates arrive on 10 December.