Key Highlights

  • BHP (ASX:BHP) has set out a pipeline it says could lift attributable copper production by around 40 per cent by FY2035.
  • BHP Group (ASX:BHP) has laid out a clear long-term goal for its most important commodity.
  • The scale of this ambition matters because copper has become BHP’s largest Earnings engine, contributing more than half of underlying EBITDA in FY2026.
  • Chile remains the heart of BHP’s copper business.

BHP (ASX:BHP) has set out a pipeline it says could lift attributable copper production by around 40 per cent by FY2035. Spanning Chile, Australia, Argentina and Arizona, and largely self-funded, it is arguably the most consequential strategy the Mining giant has articulated in years, and a defining test for ASX:BHP.

The Ambition

BHP Group (ASX:BHP) has laid out a clear long-term goal for its most important commodity. In its FY2026 results, the company said it has a well-defined project pipeline across Chile, Australia and Argentina that can potentially lift copper production by around 40 per cent by FY2035. On some measures BHP has framed the opportunity even more broadly, pointing to a pathway toward roughly 2.5 million tonnes per annum of attributable copper-equivalent output by the mid-2030s once by-products are included.

The scale of this ambition matters because copper has become BHP’s largest earnings engine, contributing more than half of underlying EBITDA in FY2026. Growing copper is therefore not a side project; it is the central plank of the company’s strategy for the next decade.

Chile: Escondida at the Core

Chile remains the heart of BHP’s copper business. Escondida, the world’s largest copper mine, produced 1,261.2 kilotonnes in FY2026, and BHP has approved US$0.5 billion in pre-commitment funding for a new concentrator, ahead of a full final Investment decision expected in the CY27–28 window. The challenge at Escondida is grade decline; FY2027 guidance falls to 1,000 to 1,100 kilotonnes, which is precisely why new processing capacity is needed to sustain output over the long term. Alongside Escondida, projects at Spence and the potential restart of Cerro Colorado add further Chilean optionality.

Australia: Copper South Australia

In Australia, BHP’s growth centres on Copper South Australia, the integrated operating model that combines Olympic Dam, Carrapateena and Prominent Hill. The Business delivered record performance in FY2026 and slashed unit costs, and BHP has said it has the potential to roughly double production through phased expansions. A Copper SA site visit planned for November was flagged as a key event for investors seeking detail on the expansion pathway. For a domestically focused audience, this is the part of the copper story most directly rooted in Australian soil.

Argentina: The Vicuña District

Argentina represents BHP’s most significant new copper frontier. The Vicuña district, a joint venture housing the Josemaria and Filo deposits, holds an estimated combined resource of around 47 million tonnes of copper along with major gold and silver. BHP has flagged a potential final investment decision for Vicuña Stage 1 as early as the end of CY2026, with the project having secured environmental approval, a Royalty agreement with San Juan province and access under Argentina’s RIGI investment framework. In peak years the district could produce well over 500 kilotonnes of copper a year plus substantial precious-metal by-products.

Arizona: Resolution as Long-Term Option

The United States adds a longer-dated option through the Resolution project in Arizona, a joint venture in which BHP declared a maiden ASX Mineral Resource of 1.86 billion tonnes at 1.52 per cent copper in FY2026. Resolution is a large, deep and technically complex orebody that has faced a lengthy permitting process, so it sits further out on the timeline. It nonetheless illustrates the geographic breadth of BHP’s copper optionality.

Organic Growth, Capital and Self-Funding

A defining feature of the plan is that it leans heavily on organic growth from BHP’s own Assets rather than large acquisitions. Management has stressed that copper now generates enough free Cash Flow to make its expansion self-funding, an important claim given group Capital Expenditure guidance of around US$11 billion per year on average over the medium term. That does not rule out acquisitions, but the stated strategy is to build from within. Whether BHP supplements organic growth with M&A remains an open question rather than a confirmed plan.

Why the Demand Case Underpins It All

The entire growth plan rests on a view that the world will need far more copper. BHP has consistently argued that electrification, from electric vehicles and renewable power to grid expansion, is structurally copper-intensive, and that the rise of artificial intelligence and the data centres behind it is adding a fresh wave of electricity demand and associated grid investment. Set against ageing mines and a thin pipeline of new discoveries industry-wide, this points to a potential long-run Supply gap that higher prices and new projects must fill. This is BHP’s thesis rather than a certainty, but it is a widely held one, and it explains why the company is willing to commit heavy capital over a long horizon.

Risks and Execution

The risks are considerable. Large copper projects are notorious for cost overruns and delays; Escondida’s new concentrator carries a multi-billion-dollar estimate, and Vicuña and Resolution face the usual permitting, technical and geopolitical hurdles. Grade decline at Escondida means BHP must run hard simply to stand still before growth is added. Copper prices are cyclical, and a downturn could pressure project economics. The 40 per cent figure is explicitly a potential outcome, contingent on execution, not a guarantee.

What Investors Should Watch Next

Key milestones include the Vicuña Stage 1 investment decision expected around the end of 2026, the Escondida New Concentrator FID in CY27–28, the November Copper SA site visit, and updates on Resolution’s permitting. A key variable will be BHP’s ability to deliver these projects on time and on budget while copper prices remain supportive.

Key Takeaway

BHP’s pipeline to lift attributable copper output by around 40 per cent by FY2035 is the strategy most likely to define the company over the next decade. Spanning Escondida, Copper South Australia, Vicuña and Resolution, and framed as largely self-funding, it is ambitious but far from guaranteed. For shareholders, the issues to monitor are execution on cost and schedule, the timing of key investment decisions, and grade decline at Escondida, because the difference between the plan on paper and delivered tonnes will shape ASX:BHP’s returns for years.