Key Highlights

  • For the first time in its history, copper generated more than half of BHP (ASX:BHP)’s underlying earnings.
  • BHP Group (ASX:BHP) has crossed a threshold that would have seemed improbable a decade ago.
  • This is more than a statistical curiosity.
  • BHP produced approximately 2 million tonnes of copper for the second consecutive year, with total attributable output of about 1,952.8 kilotonnes in FY2026, inside

For the first time in its history, copper generated more than half of BHP (ASX:BHP)’s underlying earnings. The milestone marks a genuine turning point for a company long defined by iron ore, and it reframes how investors should think about the commodities that will drive ASX:BHP through the energy transition.

A Historic First

BHP Group (ASX:BHP) has crossed a threshold that would have seemed improbable a decade ago. In the results for the year ended 30 June 2026, copper contributed more than half of the group’s underlying EBITDA for the first time, generating record copper Earnings of around US$18 billion, roughly 54 per cent of the group total, at an EBITDA Margin near 70 per cent. Group underlying EBITDA came in at about US$32.9 billion. In short, the red metal has overtaken iron ore as the company’s largest single source of profit.

This is more than a statistical curiosity. It represents a structural shift in what BHP is. For most of its modern history the company was, in earnings terms, an iron ore Business with other Assets attached. FY2026 confirms it is now, first and foremost, a copper business, with iron ore as an enormously profitable second engine.

The Numbers Behind the Shift

BHP produced approximately 2 million tonnes of copper for the second consecutive year, with total attributable output of about 1,952.8 kilotonnes in FY2026, inside its guidance range. The single biggest contributor was Escondida in northern Chile, the world’s largest copper mine, which delivered 1,261.2 kilotonnes. Copper prices running roughly 35 per cent higher than a year earlier amplified the effect, turning strong volumes into outsized earnings.

The margin profile is what makes copper so valuable to the portfolio. A near-70 per cent EBITDA margin means copper converts Revenue into profit more efficiently than most of BHP’s other divisions, so each additional tonne is disproportionately powerful for group returns. That is why management describes copper as the engine driving BHP’s growth, and notes that copper now generates enough free Cash Flow to make its own expansion self-funding.

The Assets Powering the Engine

BHP’s copper strength is spread across several tier-one assets. Escondida anchors production in Chile alongside Pampa Norte. In Australia, Copper South Australia, which brings together Olympic Dam, Carrapateena and Prominent Hill, delivered record operational and financial performance and dramatically improved unit costs. Antamina in Peru, an equity-accounted joint venture, adds further copper and zinc. Beyond current production, the Vicuña district in Argentina and the Resolution project in Arizona represent large future resources; BHP declared a maiden ASX Mineral Resource for Resolution of 1.86 billion tonnes at 1.52 per cent copper in FY2026.

Together these assets give BHP something rare: scale, quality and a pipeline on three continents. For a general investor, the takeaway is that BHP’s copper is not a single-mine story but a diversified base with room to grow.

Why the World Wants More Copper

The strategic bet behind BHP’s copper pivot is structural demand. Copper is essential to electrification, and the energy transition is copper-intensive: electric vehicles, renewable generation, battery storage and the expansion of electricity grids all require far more copper than the systems they replace. On top of that, the rapid build-out of data centres to power artificial intelligence is adding a new and substantial source of electricity demand, which in turn drives grid Investment and copper consumption.

BHP has repeatedly argued that these forces point to a long-run Supply gap, as existing mines age and new discoveries become harder and more expensive to develop. Whether prices stay elevated is not guaranteed, and copper remains cyclical, so this reasoning is analysis rather than certainty. But the direction of Demand is one of the more widely accepted theses in the commodities world.

What It Means for BHP’s Commodity Mix

The FY2026 result cements a deliberate rebalancing. BHP has been directing Capital toward copper and potash while treating iron ore and coal as mature cash generators. The company has outlined a pipeline across Chile, Australia and Argentina that it says could lift attributable copper production by around 40 per cent by FY2035. If executed, that would tilt the portfolio even further toward copper and deepen the transformation FY2026 revealed.

This Rebalancing did not happen by accident. BHP walked away from a high-profile Takeover approach for Anglo American in 2024, a deal that had been widely read as an attempt to bulk up in copper quickly. The company has since signalled a preference for growing copper organically from assets it already controls, arguing that its existing pipeline can deliver the growth it needs without a transformational acquisition. FY2026 gives that argument financial backing: with copper now self-funding its own expansion, BHP has less need to reach for expensive M&A to shift its commodity mix.

Opportunities and Risks

The opportunity is a portfolio increasingly geared to a commodity with strong structural demand and high margins. The risks are equally real: copper prices are volatile, Chilean grades at Escondida are declining, large projects carry execution and cost risk, and a heavier copper weighting means group earnings become more sensitive to a single commodity’s cycle. Concentration can amplify both gains and losses.

What Investors Should Watch Next

Investors may be watching copper price trends, Escondida’s grade trajectory and FY2027 guidance of 1,000 to 1,100 kilotonnes there, progress on Copper South Australia and Vicuña, and the pace of the broader growth pipeline. The central question the FY2026 result poses, whether BHP has changed forever, will ultimately be answered by execution over the coming decade.

Key Takeaway

FY2026 confirms a genuine structural change: copper is now BHP’s largest earnings source, contributing more than half of underlying EBITDA at a very high margin. That reframes ASX:BHP as a copper-led business with iron ore as a cash engine. For shareholders, the key issue to monitor is whether BHP can sustain and grow copper output, given declining Escondida grades and ambitious expansion plans, because a portfolio tilted toward copper offers strong upside from electrification demand but greater exposure to a single, cyclical commodity.