Key Highlights

  • Brandon Craig took the helm as BHP (ASX:BHP)’s chief executive on 1 July 2026, inheriting a company transformed by copper and flush with cash.
  • On 1 July 2026, Brandon Craig became Chief Executive Officer and a director of BHP Group (ASX:BHP), succeeding Mike Henry, who stepped down after
  • Craig inherits a Business in strong shape but facing consequential choices.
  • Copper is now BHP’s largest Earnings engine, and the company has a pipeline it says could lift attributable copper production by around 40 per

Brandon Craig took the helm as BHP (ASX:BHP)’s chief executive on 1 July 2026, inheriting a company transformed by copper and flush with cash. The decisions he oversees on growth, Capital and decarbonisation will shape ASX:BHP for years. Here are five of the biggest, and why investors should watch each closely.

A New Leader

On 1 July 2026, Brandon Craig became Chief Executive Officer and a director of BHP Group (ASX:BHP), succeeding Mike Henry, who stepped down after six and a half years leading the company. The board, chaired by Ross McEwan, cited Craig’s extensive operational experience, including Leadership across the Americas and the company’s copper and iron ore businesses. Craig presented his first full-year results alongside Chief Financial Officer Vandita Pant on 18 August 2026, unveiling record copper earnings and a roughly US$33 billion underlying EBITDA.

Craig inherits a business in strong shape but facing consequential choices. The following five decisions, all matters facing BHP under his leadership rather than positions he has personally staked out, will do much to define the next decade. Where BHP has disclosed plans, they are noted as such; the framing of these as pivotal decisions is analysis.

1. How Fast to Push Copper Growth

Copper is now BHP’s largest earnings engine, and the company has a pipeline it says could lift attributable copper production by around 40 per cent by FY2035, spanning the Escondida New Concentrator, Copper South Australia and Vicuña in Argentina. The central decision is one of pace and capital: how aggressively to commit to these projects, in what sequence, and at what cost. The timing of the Vicuña Stage 1 Investment decision, flagged as potentially as early as the end of CY2026, and the Escondida concentrator decision in CY27–28, will be early tests.

2. What to Do With Western Australia Iron Ore

The Pilbara remains BHP’s cash engine, but its strategic handling is live. In September 2026 the company acknowledged media speculation about a potential Partnership involving part of WAIO, following reports that China Baowu was exploring a minority stake in the Jimblebar mine. BHP has not announced any transaction, and its statement said only that it regularly explores partnership options. Whether BHP pursues such a partnership, and how it balances value, control and Australia’s foreign-investment sensitivities, is a decision with significant implications. Investors should treat the Baowu reports as unconfirmed media speculation, not settled fact.

3. How to Handle Jansen

The Jansen potash project in Canada is 84 per cent complete on Stage 1 and targeting first production in mid-2027, but it has been dogged by cost escalation, with Stage 1 rising to US$8.4 billion and a US$2.3 billion Impairment booked in FY2026 after Stage 2 costs jumped. The decisions here include delivering Stage 1 on schedule, managing the ramp-up, and judging the pace and scope of Stage 2 against potash prices. Jansen’s execution will be a visible measure of BHP’s project-delivery credibility.

4. How to Allocate a Powerful Balance Sheet

BHP ended FY2026 with net Debt of just US$8.7 billion, below its target range, and returned US$8.7 billion to shareholders through dividends. The perennial capital-allocation question, governed by BHP’s framework, is how to balance dividends, organic growth spending of around US$11 billion a year, and the possibility of acquisitions. BHP walked away from a bid for Anglo American in 2024, signalling discipline, but its financial firepower keeps the option open. How this balance is struck will shape Shareholder returns. It would be speculation to assume any particular Acquisition is planned.

5. How to Deliver Decarbonisation

BHP has cut operational emissions by about 33 per cent from its FY2020 baseline but faces a much harder path to net zero by CY2050, dependent on displacing diesel and abating methane, with broad deployment of battery-electric fleets not expected until after FY2030 and at least US$4 billion of incremental spending required in the 2030s. Decisions on the pace and cost of decarbonisation, and the extent of any reliance on carbon credits, will affect both BHP’s climate standing and its capital plans.

The Balancing Act

These five decisions are deeply interconnected. Aggressive copper growth, generous dividends, Jansen spending and decarbonisation investment all compete for the same capital, and choices in one area constrain the others. The art of leadership will lie in sequencing and prioritising them while maintaining the financial discipline that has strengthened BHP’s balance sheet. Craig’s challenge is to keep the cash engine of iron ore running while steering the company deeper into copper, without overreaching.

Continuity, Not Revolution

It is worth stressing that Craig’s appointment signals continuity rather than a sharp change of direction. The board described a planned, internal succession, and Craig steps into a strategy already set: invest in durable commodities, operate tier-one Assets with excellence, and allocate capital with discipline. The copper pivot, the WAIO cash engine, the Jansen bet and the decarbonisation targets were all in place before he took over. His task is execution, delivering on commitments already made, rather than reinventing the company. That distinction matters for investors: the questions ahead are less about whether BHP will change course and more about how well the existing strategy is carried out under new leadership. A smooth handover from Mike Henry, who reshaped BHP over six and a half years, gives Craig a strong platform, but also leaves him accountable for delivering the growth the strategy promises.

What Investors Should Watch Next

Near-term signposts include the Vicuña and Escondida investment decisions, any formal development on the WAIO partnership speculation, Jansen’s first production in mid-2027, Dividend and capital-allocation choices at upcoming results, and the trajectory of decarbonisation spending. A key variable will be how Craig prioritises among these competing demands, since the pattern he sets early is likely to define BHP’s direction for the next decade.

Key Takeaway

Brandon Craig inherits a financially strong, copper-led BHP, but the decisions ahead, on the pace of copper growth, the future of WAIO, Jansen’s delivery, capital allocation and decarbonisation, are weighty and interconnected. None has been fully resolved, and several, such as the WAIO partnership speculation, remain unconfirmed. For shareholders, the issue to monitor is how the new leadership sequences and funds these competing priorities while preserving capital discipline, because the choices made in Craig’s first years will shape ASX:BHP’s returns and direction through the 2030s.