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The warning, in the PBO's 2026–27 Medium-Term Budget Outlook released on 14 July, has become a flashpoint in Canberra. It is fuelling Coalition calls to index tax brackets and raising questions about how long legislated tax cuts can offset the drift.
The figures offer a useful snapshot of how Tax Time 2026 is unfolding, with the self-lodger deadline approaching and the ATO sharpening its focus on overclaimed deductions, missing income and misinformation.
This is not a proposal waiting on Parliament. The change sits in Schedule 1 of the Treasury Laws Amendment (Tax Reform No. 1) Act 2026, which passed the Senate on 25 June 2026 and received Royal Assent the next day.
The CGT overhaul is law. Schedule 1 of the Treasury Laws Amendment (Tax Reform No. 1) Act 2026, which received Royal Assent on 26 June 2026, replaces the 50% discount with cost-base indexation and a 30% minimum tax for individuals, trusts and partnerships.
The negative gearing changes are law. They are in Schedule 2 of the Treasury Laws Amendment (Tax Reform No. 1) Act 2026, which received Royal Assent on 26 June 2026.
The Treasury Laws Amendment (Tax Reform No. 1) Act 2026, which received Royal Assent on 26 June 2026, limits negative gearing for residential property from 1 July 2027.
The Tax Reform No. 2 Act passed both Houses on 19 August 2026. Schedule 4 inserts four new sections into the Income Tax Assessment Act 1997.
The carve-outs are not yet law. But they signal where the government wants investment dollars to keep flowing, and they could shape which projects stack up financially over the next few years.
The short version: Treasury expects modest effects on prices and rents, and a meaningful but gradual lift in home ownership. Critics argue the supply side of the story is less rosy.
For owners of growing family businesses, the change could be worth a great deal when they sell. But it is narrower than some coverage suggests.
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