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Actions Over Words: How the RBA Rebuilt Its Inflation Credibility After COVID

The paper, "Perceived Monetary Policy Rules: Evidence From Professional Forecasters in Australia," by Jonathan Hambur and Qazi Haque, used survey data on professional forecasters in Australia from 2015 to 2025. Rather than scoring whether forecasters' rate predictions turned out to be right, the study …

Aditi Sarkar | 29 October 2026

Do Economists Guess the RBA Right? A New Research Paper Has an Unusual Answer

A reaction function is the implicit rule that describes how a central bank responds to economic conditions. If inflation runs too high, how forcefully does it raise rates? If unemployment rises, does it ease? The RBA does not publish a formula. The Monetary Policy …

Aditi Sarkar | 29 October 2026

Before the Pandemic, Low Inflation Did Not Mean Rate Cuts: What RBA Research Found

A textbook inflation-targeting central bank responds symmetrically: raising rates when inflation is too high and cutting when it is too low. If forecasters believed the RBA operated that way, sustained low inflation should have led them to expect rate reductions. Research Discussion Paper 2026-06 …

Aditi Sarkar | 29 October 2026

Housing's Slowdown in Two Data Points: Falling Capital City Prices and Declining New Loans

Bullock's statement used the word "most" rather than "all" capital cities. This means the decline is broad but not universal. Some markets may still be holding their value or declining more slowly. The aggregate direction is downward in the majority of cities, which represents …

Aditi Sarkar | 29 October 2026

"Embedded" Inflation: The Word the RBA Keeps Using and Why It Matters

In central banking language, inflation becomes embedded when it ceases to be a response to a specific shock and starts feeding on itself. Businesses raise prices because they expect costs to keep rising. Workers seek higher wages because they expect prices to keep rising. …

Aditi Sarkar | 29 October 2026

Why Sarah Hunter Would Not Predict the Next RBA Rate Decision

The nine members of the Monetary Policy Board are: Michele Bullock (Governor and Chair), Andrew Hauser (Deputy Governor and Deputy Chair), Marnie Baker AM, Melinda Cilento, Renee Fry-McKibbin, Carolyn Hewson AO, Bruce Preston, Iain Ross AO, and Jenny Wilkinson PSM. The September decision was …

Aditi Sarkar | 29 October 2026

Inflation at 4.3%, Target at 2-3%: Measuring the Gap the RBA Has to Close

This publication's arithmetic, not an RBA calculation: headline inflation at 4.3% minus the 2.5% midpoint leaves a gap of 1.8 percentage points. Against the top of the range at 3%, the gap shrinks to 1.3 percentage points. If underlying inflation at approximately 3.5% is …

Aditi Sarkar | 29 October 2026

"Elevated for Some Time": Decoding Bullock's Inflation Warning to Senators

Start with where inflation stands. On the RBA's homepage, headline CPI is at 4.3% against a 2-3% target range. Bullock also described recent annual inflation as running at around 3.5 to 4 per cent, and at her September media conference said "the underlying inflation …

Aditi Sarkar | 29 October 2026

Risks Partly Materialised: How August's Upside Scenario Became September's Reality

The Board held the cash rate at 4.35% at its August 2026 meeting. The August SMP laid out the central forecast and stated that risks to the inflation outlook were skewed to the upside. Bullock's 28 October Senate statement described the August projection as …

Aditi Sarkar | 29 October 2026

Oil Shock 2.0: Why Renewed Middle East Conflict Is Feeding Into Australian Mortgage Rates

The minutes of the Board's 29 September 2026 meeting recorded that petrol and diesel prices were 13% above the August Statement on Monetary Policy forecasts. Central bank forecasts typically use current market prices for oil as a working assumption. When energy prices move sharply …

Aditi Sarkar | 29 October 2026
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