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Index Update: Australian shares ended the last trading session of FY25 on a positive note with the equity benchmark S&P/ASX 200 rising 28.10 points, or 0.33% to close at 8,542.30. The index registered ~10% gain in FY25 and is up 3.40% over the past six months, marking its sixth consecutive half-yearly gain. Over the last five days, the index has gained 0.43% and remains just 1.12% below its 52-week high. Seven of the 11 sectors ended the day higher alongside the broader market, with Health Care emerging as the best-performing sector, rising 1.58% on Monday.
Macro Update: The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has warned that trade tensions and geopolitical fractures threaten to reveal vulnerabilities in the global financial system in its latest world economy assessment. Released ahead of President Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline, the report highlights diminishing resilience of the global economy amid ageing populations, climate change, and supply chain strains. The post-COVID inflation surge has also altered public perceptions of prices. Meanwhile, the bank stated that rising public debt heightens financial risks, curtailing governments’ capacity to counter economic crises through fiscal stimulus.
Top Market Movers: On Monday, the top three gainers on the ASX were NIB Holdings Limited (ASX: NHF), which surged 9.43% to AUD 7.08, James Hardie Industries PLC (ASX: JHX), up 7.06% to AUD 41.70, and Block, Inc. (ASX: XYZ), rising 4.02% to AUD 102.65. Among the biggest losers were Deep Yellow Limited (ASX: DYL), down 5.65% to AUD 1.67, Nickel Industries Limited (ASX: NIC), falling 3.47% to AUD 0.695, and Lynas Rare Earths Limited (ASX: LYC), slipping 3.04% to AUD 8.61.
Commodity Update: The dollar hovered near a four-year low against the euro on Monday amid optimism over U.S. trade deals, boosting expectations of early Fed rate cuts. Uncertainty rose as President Trump abruptly ended trade talks with Ottawa. Gold increased 0.07% to USD 3,289.90, silver slipped 0.38% to USD 35.90, and copper fell 0.22% to USD 9,855.30. Brent crude fell 0.97% to USD 67.11 as easing geopolitical risks weighed on prices.
Our Stance: The Australian market’s sixth consecutive half-yearly rise reflects resilient investor confidence amid easing geopolitical and trade tensions, with the S&P/ASX 200 up 3.40% over six months and crossing a key technical level. However, the Bank for International Settlements’ warning about mounting global economic vulnerabilities signal caution ahead. While top ASX gainers like NHF and JHX show sector strength, ongoing trade uncertainties and macroeconomic challenges suggest investors should remain vigilant, balancing optimism with preparedness for potential volatility in the months ahead.
In its most recent trading session, the S&P/ASX 200 Index rose by 28.10 points to close at 8,542.30. The index remains above its 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which now acts as a critical support level. On the daily chart, key support is identified near 8,470.60 holding above this level could help consolidate recent gains and reinforce confidence in the index’s upward trajectory. Notably, the index is also positioned above its 21-period SMA on the weekly chart, a positive signal that suggests potential sustained momentum over the longer term. This alignment of technical indicators across timeframes supports a bullish outlook. While short-term fluctuations may occur, maintaining these support levels could help the index demonstrate resilience and continue its upward trend, provided broader market conditions remain supportive.
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