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Index Update: The S&P/ASX 200 slipped just 1.20 points on Tuesday to close at 8,541.10, capping a flat session for the Australian sharemarket amid caution over ongoing U.S. tariff negotiations. The index remains 1.13% below its 52-week high and was little changed over the past five days. Sector performance was mixed, with five sectors rising and six declining. Utilities led gains, climbing 0.92% as it rebounded from recent losses, though it remains down 0.28% for the week.
Macro Update: Job vacancies in Australia rose by 2.9% to 339,400 in May 2025, according to quarterly figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released last week. This increase followed a decline in the three months to February 2025 and was largely driven by industries employing a high proportion of skilled workers, such as professional, scientific and technical services, and construction. Despite the quarterly rise, job vacancies in May 2025 were 2.8% lower than a year earlier, marking the smallest annual fall in vacancies over the past two years. Meanwhile, the number of unemployed people per job vacancy edged up from 1.7 to 1.8 over the year but remained well below the pre-pandemic level of 3.1 recorded in February 2020, signalling ongoing strong demand for labour.
Top Market Movers: Mesoblast Limited (ASX: MSB) surged 11.18% to AUD 1.840, leading gains on the ASX 200, followed by IDP Education Limited (ASX: IEL), which climbed 9.54% to AUD 4.020, and Clarity Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: CU6), up 8.00% to AUD 2.700. Meanwhile, HMC Capital Limited (ASX: HMC) tumbled 17.26% to AUD 4.220, Lovisa Holdings Limited (ASX: LOV) fell 4.36% to AUD 30.300, and Boss Energy Ltd (ASX: BOE) slipped 4.07% to AUD 4.480.
Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar hit its weakest level against the euro since September 2021 amid rising fiscal concerns linked to President Donald Trump’s spending bill and ongoing trade uncertainty. Markets are increasingly pricing in a quicker pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts ahead of key U.S. data, including Thursday’s nonfarm payrolls report. Gold rose 0.67% to USD 3,329.70, silver dipped 0.02% to USD 35.84, copper edged down 0.01% to USD 9,873.30, and Brent crude slipped 0.24% to USD 66.58.
Our Stance: The ASX 200’s flat close at 8,541.10 highlights investor caution as U.S. tariff negotiations loom, keeping the index just below recent highs. Australia’s modest rebound in job vacancies suggests resilience in skilled sectors, but softer annual figures hint at labour market normalisation. Meanwhile, commodity markets are reacting to a weaker U.S. dollar and expectations of Fed rate cuts, lifting gold but leaving other metals and oil subdued.
The S&P/ASX 200 Index endured a quiet session, edging down by 1.20 points and forming a small bearish candlestick pattern. Despite this minor pullback, the index remains above its 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the daily chart a critical support level that continues to underpin the bullish trend. Key support is identified near 8,420.50, a level closely watched by market participants. Holding above this threshold could help consolidate recent gains and reinforce confidence in the index’s upward trajectory. Additionally, the index’s position above the 21-period SMA on the weekly chart highlights the potential for sustained bullish momentum. The alignment of these technical indicators across multiple timeframes underscores the index’s resilience and supports a broadly positive outlook despite short-term volatility.
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