small-cap

Value Model Portfolio Rebalancing EXIT (ASX HLS) and ENTRY (ASX HMC)

May 12, 2025 | Team Kalkine
Value Model Portfolio Rebalancing EXIT (ASX HLS) and ENTRY (ASX HMC)
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HLS:ASX
Investment Type
Small-Cap
Risk Level
Action
Rec. Price (AU$)
HMC:ASX
Investment Type
Mid - Cap
Risk Level
Action
Rec. Price (AU$)

1. Exit Case:

Overview Healius Limited (ASX: HLS) is a prominent Australian healthcare company specializing in diagnostic services, with a primary focus on pathology. Established in 1994 and headquartered in Sydney, Healius operates an extensive network of laboratories and collection centers across the country, delivering essential diagnostic services to patients and healthcare providers.

HLS has been a part of the ‘Value Model Portfolio’ since 03 November 2022, however, considering the recent rally, trading near the resistance in the stock, support & resistance levels, and ~42.03% downside from the entry price, an ‘Exit’ is recommended from the stock near the resistance of AUD 1.095, as on 12 May 2025.  Exit price reflected below includes a one time special dividend of 41.3 cents per ordinary shares. On 5th May 2025, the board of directors announced the payment of fully franked special dividend equivalent to AUD 300 million or 41.3 cents per ordinary shares.

HLS successfully completed its 1 for 3.65 pro-rata accelerated non-renounceable entitlement offer (‘Institutional Entitlement Offer’) to raise funds of approximately AUD 154mn at an offer price of AUD 1.2 per New Share. The entitlement offers of new fully paid ordinary shares were announced on November 20, 2023. The Retail Entitlement Offer was scheduled to be open on November 28, 2023, and closed on December 7, 2023, for which the eligible retail shareholders raised ~AUD 33mn. Therefore, the historical price has been adjusted to reflect this offer of 1:3.65 pro-rata offer i.e. AUD 1.095 is equivalent to AUD 1.395, and an addition of 41.3 cents per ordinary share leads to an overall exit price of AUD 1.814 per share as highlighted in the above table.

1.1 Support and Resistance Summary as provided in our last published report dated 16 December 2024.

 

1.2 Healius Limited (ASX: HLS)

 One Year Technical Price Chart (as of 12 May 2025; 2.20 PM AEDT). Source: REFINITIV, Analysis: Kalkine Group

2. New Entry Case: HMC Capital Limited (ASX: HMC)

Overview: HMC Capital Limited (ASX: HMC) is a diversified Australian alternative asset manager specializing in high-conviction, scalable real asset strategies. The firm manages approximately $19 billion in assets across sectors such as real estate, private equity, energy transition, digital infrastructure, and private credit.

Technical Analysis: On the daily chart, HMC is trading above the horizontal trendline support zone and remains above the trendline. The 14-period RSI momentum oscillator indicates a reading of approximately 45.96, suggesting strong momentum. Additionally, prices are above the 21-period SMA, which could serve as a support level. Key support is positioned at AUD 4.50, while resistance is at AUD 6.00.

Considering the above mentioned factors, technical analysis, support & resistance levels, key risks and outlook an ‘Entry’ is recommended in the ‘Value Model Portfolio’ at the closing price of AUD 5.37, as on 12 May 2025.

HMC Capital Limited (ASX: HMC) has been identified as the new entry to our Value Model Portfolio.

2.1 Support and Resistance Summary as on 12 May 2025

*Resistance 2 can be considered as an indicative exit case. However, individuals may evaluate exiting the position depending on their risk appetite, previous holdings, and other factors considered. The support and resistance levels may need to be re-evaluated within 4-6 weeks’ time frame depending on the stock price movements.

One Year Technical Price Chart (ASX: HMC)

 One Year Technical Price Chart (as of 12 May 2025, 4:01 pm AEDT). Source: REFINITIV, Analysis: Kalkine Group

Note 1: Past performance is neither an Indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, and currency as of 12 May 2025.The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings.

Disclaimer

This information should not be relied upon as personal financial advice by Kalkine on (i) the stocks or (ii) the use or suitability of the model portfolios. Only an investor knows about their circumstances to make an investment decision.

Model Portfolio has been prepared for illustrative purpose only and does not take into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. Accordingly, investors should, before acting on the information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to their objectives, financial situation and needs. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance results. Actual investment returns will vary, and the value of investments can go up or down.


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Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.