Blue-Chip

Technical Analysis on One ASX-Listed Basic Materials Stock – FMG

December 21, 2023 | Team Kalkine
Technical Analysis on One ASX-Listed Basic Materials Stock – FMG

FMG:ASX
Investment Type
Large-cap
Risk Level
Action
Rec. Price (AU$)

Company Overview: Fortescue Limited (ASX: FMG) engages in the exploration, development, production, processing, and sale of copper, gold, and lithium deposits, and rare earth elements, which owns and operates the Chichester Hub and the Solomon Hub mining projects located in the Hamersley ranges of Pilbara, Western Australia. This Report covers the Price Action, Technical Indicators Analysis along with the Support Levels, Resistance Levels, and Recommendations on this stock.

Recent Updates:

Fortescue Ltd. (ASX: FMG), earlier known as Fortescue Metals Group Ltd, changed its name following shareholders' approval in the AGM conducted on 21 November 2023. On 21 November 2023, the company informed that its Board approved a Final Investment Decision (FID) on the Phoenix Hydrogen Hub, USA, the Gladstone PEM50 Project in Queensland, Australia, and a Green Iron Trial Commercial Plant in Western Australia (WA).

 In the September quarter, FMG's iron ore shipments totalled 45.9 million tonnes (Mt), 3% lower than the prior corresponding period and in line with Q1 FY22. Its cash balance stood at USD 3.1 bn and net debt was USD 2.2bn at 30 September 2023, after payment of the final dividend of USD 2bn in the quarter. Its guidance for FY24 for total shipments, C1 cost and capital expenditure was unchanged as mentioned below:

  • Iron ore shipments of 192 - 197Mt, including approximately 5Mt for Iron Bridge (100% basis).
  • C1 cost for Pilbara Hematite of USD 18.00 - USD 19.00/wmt.
  • Metals capital expenditure of USD 2.8 - USD 3.2 billion.

 In the September quarter, the company achieved a milestone of exporting two billion tonnes of iron ore from Fortescue’s Pilbara Operations since it was established. Also, the company signed a memorandum of understanding with the Puutu Kunti Kurrama and Pinikura (PKKP) Aboriginal Corporation to guide the development of a co-management model.

In FY23, FMG reported a revenue of USD 16,871mn, down 3% over FY22 revenue of USD 17,390, because of lower realised prices. Its underlying net profit declined by 11% annually to USD 5,522mn vs USD 6,197 mn in FY22.

FMG’s Technical Analysis:

On the daily chart, FMG's stock price is forming an uptrend characterized by higher highs and higher lows, signalling a positive trend. In contrast, the RSI (14-period) is trading deep in its overbought region, anticipating for a potential minor correction. Prices are trading above both the 21-period and 50-day SMAs, which may potentially function as dynamic support levels for the stock; in contrast, the stock’s most recent high might act as a resistance level. Critical support for the stock is positioned at AUD 24.63, while key resistance is placed at AUD 30.00.

Daily Technical Chart – FMG

Individuals can evaluate the stock based on the support and resistance levels provided in the report in case of keen interest, taking into consideration the risk-reward scenario.

Considering the stock’s current price levels forming higher peaks and higher troughs, and momentum oscillator analysis, a “Watch” recommendation is given on the stock. The stock was analysed as per the closing price of AUD 27.88 per share as on 20 December 2023, down by 0.75%. Fortescue Limited (ASX: FMG) was last covered in a report dated ’05 January 2023’.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical tensions prevailing. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an Indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: Investment decision should be made depending on an individual’s appetite for upside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered in this report.

Note 3: Related Risks: This report may be looked at from high-risk perspective and recommendations are provided are for a short duration. Recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc.

The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is December 20, 2023. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Technical Indicators Defined:

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.

The Green colour line reflects the 21-period moving average. SMA helps to identify existing price trends. If the prices are trading above the 21-period, prices are currently in a bullish trend (Vice – Versa).

The Blue colour line reflects the 50-period moving average. SMA helps to identify existing price trends. If the prices are trading above the 50-period, prices are currently in a bullish trend (Vice – Versa).

The Orange/ Yellow colour line represents the Trendline.

The Purple colour line in the chart’s lower segment reflects the Relative Strength Index (14-Period), which indicates price momentum and signals momentum in trend. A reading of 70 or above suggests overbought status, while a reading of 30 or below suggests an oversold status.



Disclaimer-

This report has been issued by Kalkine Pty Limited (ABN 34 154 808 312) (Australian financial services licence number 425376) (“Kalkine”) and prepared by Kalkine and its related bodies corporate authorised to provide general financial product advice. Kalkine.com.au and associated pages are published by Kalkine.

Any advice provided in this report is general advice only and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should therefore consider whether the advice is appropriate to your objectives, financial situation and needs before acting upon it.

There may be a Product Disclosure Statement, Information Statement or other offer document for the securities or other financial products referred to in Kalkine reports. You should obtain a copy of the relevant Product Disclosure Statement, Information Statement or offer document and consider the statement or document before making any decision about whether to acquire the security or product.

You should also seek advice from a financial adviser, stockbroker or other professional (including taxation and legal advice) as necessary before acting on any advice in this report or on the Kalkine website. Not all investments are appropriate for all people.

The information in this report and on the Kalkine website has been prepared from a wide variety of sources, which Kalkine, to the best of its knowledge and belief, considers accurate. Kalkine has made every effort to ensure the reliability of information contained in its reports, newsletters and websites. All information represents our views at the date of publication and may change without notice.

Kalkine does not guarantee the performance of, or returns on, any investment. To the extent permitted by law, Kalkine excludes all liability for any loss or damage arising from the use of this report, the Kalkine website and any information published on the Kalkine website (including any indirect or consequential loss, any data loss or data corruption). If the law prohibits this exclusion, Kalkine hereby limits its liability, to the extent permitted by law, to the resupply of services. Please note past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Please also read our Terms & Conditions and Financial Services Guide for further information.

Employees and/or associates of Kalkine and its related entities may hold interests in the securities or other financial products covered in this report or on the Kalkine website. Any such employees and associates are required to comply with certain safeguards, procedures and disclosures as required by law.

Kalkine Media Pty Ltd, an affiliate of Kalkine Pty Ltd, may have received, or be entitled to receive, financial consideration in connection with providing information about certain entity(s) covered on its website including entities covered in this Report.