Trevena, Inc.

TRVN Details

Trevena, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRVN) is a biopharmaceutical company specializing in the development and commercialization of innovative medicines for patients with central nervous system (CNS) disorders. TRVN presently only has one approved product, OLINVYK (oliceridine) injection, which is used to treat people who have severe acute pain that requires an intravenous opioid analgesic and for whom previous treatments have failed. TRV027 for acute lung damage, TRV250 for migraines, TRV734 for chronic pain and opioid use disorder, and TRV045 for epilepsy are among the company's other products in development.

Latest News:

• Making Progress Towards DNP Treatment: On December 13, 2021, TRVN stated that it is moving on with clinical development of TRV045, an S1P1 receptor modulator it is developing as a potential treatment for diabetic neuropathic pain (DNP), after gaining approval from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Through a cooperation with the National Institutes of Health, TRV045 is also being evaluated as a potential epilepsy treatment.

Q3FY21 Results:

• Clocking Product Revenues: TRVN clocked total revenue of USD 0.18 million in Q3FY21 (ended September 30, 2021), from USD 3.0 million (license revenue) in Q3FY20. However, it didn't report any product revenue in Q3FY20.
• Growth in Net Losses: TRVN's net loss expanded to USD 13.77 million in Q3FY21 from USD 5.55 million reported in Q3FY20.
• Strong Balance Sheet: As of September 30, 2021, the company had cash & cash equivalents of USD 78.65 million and total debt of USD 0.01 million.

Risks:

• Product Concentration Risk: TRVN's prospects are highly dependent on the commercial success of OLINVYK, the company's single approved product. The success of OLINVYK's commercialization is dependent on physician prescription and acceptance of patients to take it, their refusal to prescribe/continue the treatment could impair the company's financial performance.

Outlook:

• Liquidity Outlook: As of Q3FY21, TRVN claimed it has enough cash to meet its operating and capital expenditure needs until Q4FY22.

Valuation Methodology: EV/Sales Multiple Based Relative Valuation  

(Analysis by Kalkine Group)

* % Premium/(Discount) is based on our assessment of the company's NTM trading multiple after considering its key growth drivers, economic moat, stock's historical trading multiples versus peer average/median, and investment risks.

TRVN Daily Technical Chart (Source: REFINITIV)

Stock Recommendation:

TRVN's share price has decreased 62.17% in the past six months and is currently leaning towards the lower end of its 52-week range of USD 0.56 to USD 3.10. The stock is currently trading below its 50 and 200 DMA levels, and its RSI Index is at 42.68. We have valued the stock using the EV/Sales-based relative valuation methodology and arrived at a target price of USD 0.78.

Considering the correction in the stock price in the past six months, robust product pipeline, and associated risks, we recommend a "Speculative Buy" rating on the stock at the current price of USD 0.6355, up 9.10% as of January 03, 2022, 11:11 AM ET.

* The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

* All forecasted figures and industry information have been taken from REFINITIV.

* Depending upon the risk tolerance, investors may consider unwinding their positions in a respective stock once the estimated target price is reached.

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