Peninsula Energy Limited

PEN Details

Peninsula Energy Limited (ASX: PEN) wholly owns the Lance Uranium Projects in Wyoming, USA, transitioning from an alkaline in-situ recovery to a low pH in-situ recovery operation. This transition aims to achieve the operating performance and cost profile of global uranium production projects.

Results Performance for the Year Ended 30 June 2021 (FY21)

• Of the US$13.3 million cash proceeds from the sale of 275,000 pounds of uranium, only US$9.8 million was generated as revenue for FY21. A balance of US$3.5 million was allocated to derivative fair value.
• It reported a consolidated group loss of US$1.4 million in FY21 after taking into consideration an income tax expense of US$0.5 million compared to a loss of US$7.6 million in FY20.
• The consolidated cash position, excluding security deposits and performance bonds, as of 30 June 2021 stood at US$6.7 million.
• Cumulative uranium inventory of 309,507 pounds was held in converter accounts with a book value of US$9.7 million as per the average uranium price of US$31.37 per pound.

Source: Company Reports, Analysis by Kalkine Group

Outlook

PEN has started the evaluation of field demonstration data at Lance project with an expected two-month period of data analysis and process design evaluation before commencing an update of capital and operating costs. Meanwhile, the permitting of the identified process enhancements is in progress.

Further, the company holds uranium concrete sale agreements with major utilities for around 5 million pounds U308 at an average pricing of US$53 to US$55 per pound. Of which, 3.65 million pounds are firmly commited sales and around 1.35 millon pounds of optional sales at the election of the customers. The company will fulfil 0.65 million pounds of commited U3O8 sales with market sourced material over the duration of the next two years and the remaining to be met from company produced uranium. Additionally, PEN holds an overall U3O8 uranium concentrate purchase commitments amounting 0.45 million-pounds as of 31 December 2021. The portfolio of uranium concentrate sale and purchase agreements have secured a forecast net cash margin of US$8 million to US$9 million on uranium sales in CY2022.

Key Risks

The company is exposed to risks associated with the existing mineral resource estimates, which could slightly deviate from actual findings. Further, the company must follow the conditions included within the prescribed low pH permit and use the common pH mining method across the entire Ross Permit Area. The group operates globally and is prone to foreign exchange risk arising from several currency exposures.

Valuation Methodology: EV/Sales Based Relative Valuation (Illustrative)

Technical Overview:

Daily price Chart

Source: REFINITIV, Note: Purple color line reflects Relative Strength Index (14-Period)

Stock Recommendation

The stock has been valued using an EV/Sales multiple based relative valuation (on an illustrative basis), and the target price so arrived reflects a rise of low double-digit (in % terms). In addition, a slight premium has been applied to EV/Sales Multiple (NTM) (Peer Average), considering its decent liquidity position as well as a portfolio of uranium concentrate sales agreements with major utilities and improved gross margin at 12.9% in FY21 versus 2.5% in FY20.

Considering the factors above, we give a “Speculative Buy” recommendation on the stock at the current market price of A$0.17 per share as of 31^st January 2022 (Time: 10:59 AM (GMT+10), Sydney, Australia).

Peninsula Energy Limited (PEN) is a part of Kalkine’s Global Green Energy Product

Note 1: The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 2: Investment decisions should be made depending on the investors’ appetite on upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. Investors can consider exiting from the stock if the Target Price mentioned as per the analysis has been achieved and subject to the factors discussed above alongside support levels provided.

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