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Should You Book Profit on WiseTech Global Limited?

Jul 01, 2020 | Team Kalkine
Should You Book Profit on WiseTech Global Limited?


 

WiseTech Global Limited

 

WTC Details
 
Sale of Shares by Founder & CEO, Richard White: WiseTech Global Limited (ASX: WTC) is a leading developer and provider of software solutions to the logistics execution industry globally.
 
Change in Shareholding: In a recent announcement to the exchange, the company updated that RealWise Holdings Pty Ltd, a company controlled by WiseTech Global Founder and CEO, Richard White, has disposed 2,445,653 shares for a consideration of $18.4 per share via off-market trade.The shares sold form ~0.76% of the total issued capital of WiseTech Global Ltd. Mr. White confirmed his intent to remain a significant shareholder of the company for a long-term, with voting control over ~151 million WiseTech Global shares, representing ~46.9% of the issued capital. Since listing, the CEO has disposed WiseTech Global shares only once in December 2017, to facilitate liquidity. The recent release of shares via RealWise represents a step to fulfil his personal financial commitments. He further added that he confides in the company’s long-term potential and is committed to its growth strategy. Earlier, Mr. White offloaded 206,439 shares for an average price of $22.02 per share between 22 to 26 June 2020 via on-market trades.

Acquisition Earnout Arrangements Updated: The company recently restructured previously agreed acquisition earnouts, to accelerate their contribution to CargoWise development, and further improved commercial efficiency. The arrangements were closed out efficiently, removing significant contingent cash obligations and reducing future contingent liabilities. Overall contingent liabilities were reduced from $215.5 million to $68.5 million. Future contingent cash liabilities worth $151.5 million were removed. Future earnouts for ABM Data, CargoIT, Cargoguide, CargoSphere, etc., were completely closed.
 
1HFY20 Highlights: During the half-year ended December 2019, the company reported a 31% increase in revenue, with 99% of recurring revenue for its CargoWise platform.EBITDA margin for the period stood at 30%. Organic revenues from existing and new CargoWise customers delivered growth of $24.3 million on pcp, reflecting revenue from new products and features, increased usage by existing customers, onboarding of new sales, etc.
 

Financial Highlights (Source: Company Reports)
 
Trading Update: In a recent trading update for the 3 months to 31st March 2020, the company stated that performance has been in-line with expectations, reflecting continued growth in revenue, cash generation from operations and further onboarding of additional users, offsetting COVID-19 disruptions. As on 31st March 2020, the company had net cash amounting to $230 million and an undrawn debt facility of $190 million.
 
Outlook:With accelerated digital transformation, the company expects demand for global technology and integrated platforms such a CargoWise, to increase. The business is tracking in-line with expectations, with near-term focus on critical technology development, cost, cash and capital efficiency, and establishment of a competitive position, globally. The company also reaffirmed its FY20 revenue guidance of $420 million - $450 million, representing growth in the range of 21% - 29%. EBITDA for the year is expected between $114 million and $132 million, with growth ranging between 5% and 22%.
 
Key Risks: In the recent years, the company has completed a number of strategic acquisitions, which requires product development and transitioning of customers to the CargoWise One platform. As a result, the company is exposed to the risk of failure in such transition due to lack of resources. Moreover, the acquisition strategy has resulted in an expanded presence in international markets, exposing the company to political, legal or economic instability in different jurisdictions. Another key risk relates to the continuously evolving technological landscape, which can render the company’s products obsolete in a highly competitive market.

Valuation Methodology:  EV/Sales Multiple Based Relative Valuation (Illustrative)


EV/Sales Multiple Based Relative Valuation (Source: Refinitiv, Thomson Reuters)

Note: All the forecasted figures are taken from Thomson Reuters, NTM: Next Twelve Months

Stock Recommendation: The stock of the company gave positive returns of 24.86% in the last three months as at 29 June 2020. At the current market price of $19.350, the stock has a high P/E multiple of 403.88x. We have valued the stock using the EV/Sales multiple based illustrative relative valuation method and have arrived at a price correction of lower double-digit (in percentage terms). Considering the valuation, a high P/E multiple, and suspicion around the disposal of shares by the founders, we advise investors to book profits and give a “Sell” recommendation on the stock at the current market price of $19.35, down 2.223% on 30th June 2020.

 
WTC Daily Technical Chart (Source: Refinitiv, Thomson Reuters)


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