This report is an updated version of the report published on 26 February 2026 at 2:30 PM AEDT.

Kogan.com Ltd (ASX: KGN)   

Kogan.com Ltd (ASX: KGN) operates a diverse portfolio of retail and service businesses, encompassing Kogan Retail, Kogan Marketplace, Kogan Mobile, Kogan Internet, Kogan Insurance, Kogan Money, Kogan Energy, Kogan Travel, Dick Smith, Matt Blatt, Mighty Ape, and Brosa.

Recommendation Rationale – SELL at AUD 4.12

• Overvalued Multiples: On a forward 12-month basis – key trading multiples (EV/EBITDA, P/E, P/CF and P/BV) are higher than the median of the Consumer Cyclicals sector.
• Decline in Profits & Rising Expenditure: During 1HFY26, the company’s statutory NPAT declined 20% YoY and stood at AUD 8.2 million. Net profit declined primarily due to non-cash equity-based compensation and related expenses of AUD 1.9 million, unrealised foreign exchange losses of AUD 0.7 million (compared to an unrealised gain of AUD 0.02 million in 1HFY25), and non-cash depreciation and amortisation charges on tangible and intangible assets acquired through the Mighty Ape acquisition. Selling and distribution expenses rose by approximately 17% year-on-year in 1HFY26.
• Business Risks: Sales remain sensitive to discretionary spending and consumer confidence, with economic downturns, higher interest rates, or rising unemployment potentially dampening demand and pressuring margins. Profitability depends on efficient inventory management and stable digital systems, as stock imbalances or IT disruptions could impact sales and cash flow. Additionally, intense competition and evolving customer preferences may weaken market share and pricing power, while marketplace expansion requires robust seller controls to safeguard quality and brand trust.
• Technical Commentary: After a strong rally, KGN’s stock price is approaching a significant resistance established by the August 2025 high, anticipating a potential correction. Moreover, the momentum oscillator RSI (14-period) is trading in its overbought territory, providing further support to the previous observation. Price is trading above both trend-following indicators 21-day and 50-day SMA, which could serve as support levels for the stock; in contrast, the August 2025 high may act as a resistance level.

KGN Daily Chart

Valuation Methodology: EV/Sales Approach (FY June'27E) (Illustrative)

Considering the better supplier terms, tighter inventory controls, enhanced product mix, double-digit revenue growth in 1HFY26, etc., the stock might trade at a slight premium to its peers. For valuation, few peers like Universal Store Holdings Ltd (ASX: UNI), Accent Group Ltd (ASX: AX1), City Chic Collective Ltd (ASX: CCX), and others have been considered.

Considering the decline in 1HFY26 profits, rising expenditure, macroeconomic uncertainty, current trading level, and risks associated, the stock can face consolidation at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current price of AUD 4.120, at 1:51 PM AEDT, as of 26 February 2026.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical tensions prevailing. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 26 February 2026. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.    

Note 4: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.