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One Uranium Mining Company Stock Trading Near Resistance Levels - PEN

Jan 16, 2024 | Team Kalkine
One Uranium Mining Company Stock Trading Near Resistance Levels - PEN

PEN:ASX
Investment Type
Small-Cap
Risk Level
Action
Rec. Price (AU$)

This report is an updated version of the report published on the 16 January 2024 at 3:55 PM AEDT.

Peninsula Energy Limited (ASX: PEN)

PEN is an Australia-based uranium mining company. The company operates in 3 segments: Lance Projects, Karoo Projects, and South Africa.

Recommendation Rationale – SELL at AUD 0.138

  • Financial Performance: In FY23, the company’s revenue from operations went up by ~120.7% YoY. Subsequent to 1QFY24, PEN announced the establishment of the Dagger Project, located nearly 20km northeast of the Lance Project's facility and expanded PEN's mineral rights. Dagger's Initial Mineral Resource Estimate stood at 6.9mn pounds of Triuranium Octoxide.
  • Outlook: Sustainable monthly positive cash flows are projected for the calendar year 2025 (the first full year of production), rendering a payback period of 3.5 years from August 2025. The LoM Ross & Kendrick Project Revenue of nearly USD 998mn with a net present value of USD 116mn and an estimated internal rate of return of 26.2%.
  • Emerging Risks: Multiple projects are yet to enter complete commercialization, concluding potential exploration risk and probable delay in production activities.
  • Overvalued Multiples: On a forward 12-month basis, key valuation multiples (EV/EBITDA, and EV/Sales) are higher than the median of the Energy’ industry.

PEN Daily Chart

Valuation Methodology: EV/Sales Approach (FY June'25E) (Illustrative)

Considering the potential risk of construction and project commercialization delays, the company might trade at a slight discount to its peers. For valuation, few peers like Yancoal Australia Ltd (ASX: YAL), Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC), New Hope Corporation Ltd (ASX: NHC), and others have been considered. Considering the current trading levels and risks associated, downside indicated by the valuation, it is prudent to book profit at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current price of AUD 0.138, as of January 16, 2024, at 10:15 AM AEDT.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is January 16, 2024. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: In general, it is a level to protect further losses in case of any unfavourable movement in the stock prices.


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