This report is an updated version of the report published on 26 August 2025 at 02:45 PM AEST.

Kelsian Group Limited (ASX: KLS))

is an Australia-based integrated operator and multi-model transport provider. KLS’ business segments include Marine & Tourism, Australian Bus, and International Bus.

Recommendation Rationale – SELL at AUD 4.750

• Financial Highlights: KLS’s operating expenses increased by 9.4% YoY to AUD 2,160.7mn in FY25 vs AUD 1,974.8mn in FY24, primarily driven by higher wage costs. Profit after income tax expense declined by 6.1% YoY to AUD 54.5mn in FY25 vs AUD 58.0mn in FY24, reflecting elevated depreciation charges and higher interest costs associated with expanded debt facilities. In March 2025, operations within the Marine and Tourism division in Queensland were materially disrupted by Cyclone Alfred, with widespread flooding across K’gari, North Stradbroke Island and the Whitsundays causing prolonged service suspensions and reduced occupancy levels.
• Trading Near the Resistance: KLS stock has surpassed its R2 level recommended on 26 June 2025. Therefore, share price can face resistance at the current levels.
• Overvalued Multiples: On a forward 12-month basis – key trading multiples (EV/EBITDA, Price/Cash Flow) are higher than Average of the Industrials Sector.
• Market Risk: Operating in the transport and tourism sector, KLS faces risks from regulatory changes, fuel price volatility, debt pressures, and execution challenges in divesting tourism assets, while intense competition and contract dependencies could constrain growth.

KLS’s Daily Price Chart

Valuation Methodology: EV/Sales Multiple Approach (FY June'26E) (Illustrative)

Stock might trade at a slight premium to its peers considering the YoY revenue growth in FY25, increased underlying EBITDA in FY25, rise in operating cash flow, and strengthened contract visibility underpinned by two contract extensions and a new contract win in Singapore. For conducting the valuation, the following peers included: CL8 Holdings Ltd (ASX: CL8), Lindsay Australia Ltd (ASX: LAU), and Downer EDI Ltd (ASX: DOW), and others have been considered.

Considering that the stock has surpassed it R2 level, macroeconomic uncertainty, share price movement, current trading level, and risks associated, the share price can face consolidation at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current market price of AUD 4.750, at 12:52 PM AEST, as of 26 August 2025.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 26 August 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.

Note 5: Dividend Yield may vary as per the stock price movement.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: In general, it is a level to protect further losses in case of any unfavourable movement in the stock prices.