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One Technical Services Provider Can Face Resistance at Current Levels - MAD

Oct 15, 2024 | Team Kalkine
One Technical Services Provider Can Face Resistance at Current Levels - MAD

MAD:ASX
Investment Type
Small-Cap
Risk Level
Action
Rec. Price (AU$)

This report is an updated version of the report published on 15 October 2024 at 12:30 PM AEDT.

Mader Group Limited (ASX: MAD) 

Mader Group Limited (ASX: MAD) delivers specialised technical services globally across various industries. The company operates a labour market platform that efficiently links over 350 clients with a skilled workforce of more than 3,000, providing flexible and cost-effective solutions. 

Recommendation Rationale - SELL at AUD 5.850

  • Increase in Total Operating Expense – Total operating expense went up from AUD 553.4mn in FY23 to AUD 702.5mn in FY24.
  • Slower Growth expected in FY25 – MAD reported a 27% year-on-year increase in revenue to a record AUD 774.5mn in FY24, along with a net profit of AUD 50.4mn, up 31% year-on-year. However, projections for FY25 are lower compared to FY24, with management guiding for revenue of at least AUD 870mn and a net profit after tax of at least AUD 57mn.
  • Overvalued Multiples: On a forward 12-month basis – key trading multiples (EV/EBITDA, EV/Sales, Price/Earnings, Price/Book and Price/Cash Flow) are higher than the median of the industrials sector.
  • Risks – The company's dependence on the cyclical nature of the mining and resources sectors poses a significant risk. Fluctuations in commodity prices can greatly affect demand for Mader’s services, potentially resulting in reduced revenue and profitability during downturns.

MAD’s Daily Price Chart

(Source: REFNIITIV, Analysis by Kalkine Group)

Valuation Methodology: Price/Earnings Approach (FY June'25E) (Illustrative)

MAD is expected to trade at a premium due to new project opportunities and revenue and earnings growth in FY24. For conducting the valuation, the following peers have been considered: Southern Cross Electrical Engineering Ltd (ASX: SXE), Kelsian Group Ltd (ASX: KLS), SRG Global Ltd (ASX: SRG), and others.

Considering that the stock has surpassed its R1 level, market uncertainties, and risks associated, the share price can witness resistance at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current market price of AUD 5.850, as of 15 October 2024, at 10:15 AM AEDT.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 15 October 2024. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Dividend Yield may vary as per the stock price movement. 

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: In general, it is a level to protect further losses in case of any unfavourable movement in the stock prices.


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