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One Software & Services Stock Trading Near Resistance Levels – EVS

Sep 05, 2024 | Team Kalkine
One Software & Services Stock Trading Near Resistance Levels – EVS

EVS:ASX
Investment Type
Small-Cap
Risk Level
Action
Rec. Price (AU$)

This report is an updated version of the report published on 4 September 2024 at 6:33 PM AEST.

Envirosuite Limited (ASX: EVS)

EVS is a technology company specialising in environmental intelligence for sectors including aviation, mining, industrial operations, waste management, and water treatment. By integrating advanced scientific knowledge and innovative technology with industry-specific expertise, the company delivers actionable insights.

Recommendation Rationale – SELL at AUD 0.054

  • Financial Highlights: Despite a 25.5% improvement, EBITDA remained negative at AUD 1.2mn for FY24, indicating that the company is still not profitable on an EBITDA basis. Operating expenses increased by 2.1% YoY in FY24, adding pressure on profitability despite revenue gains. The Americas region represented 40.1% of total revenue, creating potential risk due to over-reliance on a single geographic area.
  • Trading Over the Resistance: EVS’ share price has surpassed its R2 level recommended on 23 August 2024.
  • Overvalued Multiples: On a forward 12-month basis – key trading multiple (EV/EBITDA) is higher than the median of technology sector.
  • Market Risk: A significant portion of the company’s revenue comes from the Americas, which poses a risk if there are economic or regulatory changes in that region. The environmental monitoring and management sector is competitive and subject to regulatory changes. Any shifts in environmental regulations or market demand could impact Envirosuite business operations.

EVS’ Daily Price Chart

Valuation Methodology: EV/Sales Approach (FY June'25E) (Illustrative)

 

EVS is expected to trade at a premium considering revenue growth in FY24, increased gross profit margin, new contract wins, and effective cost management. The following peers have been considered for valuation purposes: LiveHire Ltd (ASX: LVH), Adacel Technologies Ltd (ASX: ADA), Integrated Research Ltd (ASX: IRI), among others.

Considering that the stock has surpassed its R2 level, current trading levels, rally in share price movement, and risks associated, the share price can witness consolidation at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the closing market price of AUD 0.054, as of 4 September 2024.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 6 September 2024. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Dividend Yield may vary as per the stock price movement.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: In general, it is a level to protect further losses in case of any unfavourable movement in the stock prices.


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