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One Software Company Trading Near Resistance Levels - FCL

Mar 14, 2024 | Team Kalkine
One Software Company Trading Near Resistance Levels - FCL

FCL:ASX
Investment Type
Small-Cap
Risk Level
Action
Rec. Price (AU$)

This report is an updated version of the report published on the 14 March 2024 at 3:15 PM AEDT.

 

FINEOS Corporation Holdings PLC (ASX: FCL)

FCL is a global software company providing core systems for life, accident, and health insurance (LA&H) carriers globally. Established in 1993, this ASX-listed company works with innovative, progressive insurers in North America, EMEA, and Asia-Pacific.

Recommendation Rationale – SELL at AUD 1.920

  • Financial Performance: FCL’s subscription revenue increased by 10.5% YoY to EUR 33mn in FY23x vs EUR 29.9mn in 1HFY23. This growth was driven by expansion within the company’s existing clients base during the period. The company’s EBITDA turned positive to EUR 4.9mn in FY23x from negative EUR 2.9mn in 1HFY23, mainly driven by subscription revenue growth during the period.
  • Outlook: FCL expects revenue of EUR 130-135mn in FY24. Subscription revenue is anticipated to be in double digit growth in FY24. FCL expect to report positive free cash flow in the next six months to 30 June 2024 and the next 12 months.
  • Emerging Risks: Software & IT services companies could encompass potential losses due to adverse market conditions, such as forging currency fluctuation, geopolitical events, technology changes, and macroeconomics changes, etc.
  • Overvalued Multiples: On a forward 12-month basis, key valuation multiple (EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA, Price/Cash Flow) is higher than the median of Software & IT Services Industry.

FCL Daily Chart

Considering that the stock has surpassed its R1 level, sharp rally in share price movement, current trading levels and risks associated, it is prudent to book profits at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current price of AUD 1.920, at 10:30 AM AEDT as of 14 March 2024.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 14 March 2024. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: In general, it is a level to protect further losses in case of any unfavourable movement in the stock prices.


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