blue-chip

One Resources Company Can Face Resistance at the Current Levels - BHP

Jul 21, 2025 | Team Kalkine

Read Time :10 Mins

One Resources Company Can Face Resistance at the Current Levels - BHP — Image source: shutterstock

BHP:ASX

Investment Type

Large-cap

Risk Level

Action

Rec. Price (AU$)

This report is an updated version of the report published on 21 July 2025 at 2:51 PM AEST

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)

BHP Group Limited is one of the largest diversified resources companies globally, listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) under the ticker BHP. The company operates across several segments, primarily focused on mining copper, iron ore, coal, and several other metals.

Recommendation Rationale – SELL at AUD 40.550

Trading Around Resistance: BHP stock has crossed its first resistance (R1) of AUD 39.382 mentioned in the report dated 20 June 2025 and is approaching its R2; hence, it may witness some consolidation before scaling further upside.
Overvalued Multiples: On a forward 12-month basis - key valuation multiples (EV/EBITDA, EV/Sales, P/E, Price/Book Value and Price/Cash Flow) are higher than median of the Basic Materials sector.
Decline in Realized Commodity Prices: Average realized prices in Q4 FY25 declined in comparison to both Q3 FY25 and Q4 FY24. Copper was down 3%, iron ore fell 8%, steelmaking coal dropped 4%, and energy coal declined 12% versus the prior quarter (Q3 FY25), reflecting sustained market weakness across BHP’s key commodities.
Profit Contraction: BHP's net profit declined materially from USD 30.90 billion in FY22 to USD 7.89 billion in FY24, representing a cumulative drop of nearly 75% in two years. This reflects BHP's profit sensitivity to commodity prices.

BHP Daily Price Chart

BHP Daily Technical Chart; Source: REFINITIV

Valuation Methodology: P/E Approach (FY Jun'26E) (Illustrative)

The stock might trade at a slight premium to its peers, considering record copper and iron ore output for 9-months to 31 March 2025, high-quality production from tier-1 mines such as Escondida and WAIO, FY25 outlook, and other factors.

For conducting valuation, the following peers have been considered: South32 Ltd (ASX: S32), Iluka Resources Ltd (ASX: ILU), Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) and others.

Considering the rally in share price movement, current trading level, and risks associated, the share price can witness resistance at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current market price of AUD 40.55, as of 21 July 2025 at 2:10 PM AEST.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 21 July 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.

Note 5: Dividend Yield may vary as per the stock price movement.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.

Mid-Cap

Technical Analysis on One NYSE-Listed Uranium Stock- UEC

Mar 13, 2026 Team Kalkine

Small-Cap

One NASDAQ- Listed Semiconductor Stock at Resistance Level- HIMX

Mar 13, 2026 Team Kalkine

Blue-Chip

MQG Scales AUM and Private Credit Capabilities to Drive Growth

Mar 13, 2026 Team Kalkine

Small-Cap

Technical Analysis on Two ASX-Listed Stock – RAU, HRN

Mar 13, 2026 Team Kalkine

Mid-Cap

Technical Analysis on One NYSE- Listed Mining Stock- ERO

Mar 12, 2026 Team Kalkine

Disclaimer-

This report (“Report”) has been issued by Kalkine Pty Limited (ABN 34 154 808 312) (Australian financial services licence number 425376) (“Kalkine”) and prepared by Kalkine and its related bodies corporate who are authorised to provide general financial product advice. Kalkine.com.au and its associated pages are published by Kalkine.

Any advice provided in this Report is general advice only and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should therefore consider whether the advice is appropriate for your objectives, financial situation and needs before acting upon it.

There may be a Product Disclosure Statement, Information Memorandum or other offer document (“Offer Document”) for the securities or other financial products referred in this Report. You should obtain a copy of the relevant Offer Document and consider it before making any decision about whether to acquire the security or financial product.

Kalkine strongly recommends that you seek advice from a financial adviser, stockbroker or other professional (including taxation and legal advice) before acting on any of the general advice in this Report or on the Kalkine website. Not all investments are appropriate for all people.

The information in this Report and on the Kalkine website has been prepared from a wide variety of sources, which Kalkine, to the best of its knowledge and belief, considers accurate. Kalkine has made every effort to ensure the reliability of the information contained in its reports (including this Report), newsletters and websites. All information represents our views at the date of publication and may change without notice.

The information in this Report does not constitute an offer to sell securities or other financial products or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities or other financial products. Our reports contain general recommendations to invest in securities and other financial products. Kalkine is not responsible for, and does not guarantee, the performance of, or returns on, any investments mentioned in this Report.

Kalkine does not issue, sell or deal in any financial products.

This Report may contain information on past performance of particular investments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Returns stated do not take into account transaction costs and taxes. To the extent permitted by law, and excluding any dishonesty or gross negligence by Kalkine, Kalkine disclaims and excludes all liability for any direct, indirect, implied, punitive, special, incidental or other consequential loss or damage arising from the use of or reliance on this Report, the Kalkine website and any information published on the Kalkine website without any warranties or representations by Kalkine to you. To the extent the law prohibits or limits this exclusion, Kalkine limits its liability to the resupply of services.

Please also read our Terms & Conditions and Financial Services Guide for further information. Employees and/or associates of Kalkine and its related entities may hold interests in the securities or other financial products covered in this Report or on the Kalkine website. Any such employees and associates are required to comply with certain, procedures and disclosures as required by law.

Kalkine Media Pty Ltd, an affiliate of Kalkine Pty Ltd, may have received, or be entitled to receive, financial consideration in connection with providing information about certain entity(s) covered on its website including entities covered in this Report.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.