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One REIT Stock Trading Near Resistance Levels – GOZ

Sep 12, 2024 | Team Kalkine
One REIT Stock Trading Near Resistance Levels – GOZ

GOZ:ASX
Investment Type
Small-Cap
Risk Level
Action
Rec. Price (AU$)

This report is an updated version of the report published on 12 September 2024 at 3:40 PM AEST.

Growthpoint Properties Australia (ASX: GOZ)

GOZ is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that invests in properties in the office, industrial and retail sector across Australia.

Recommendation Rationale – SELL at AUD 2.615

  • Financial Highlights: Total revenue and other income decreased by 3% YoY to AUD 332.4mn in FY24, compared to AUD 342.7mn in FY23, primarily due to lower property revenue. Net property income, including investment distributions, declined by 5.5% YoY to AUD 249.7mn in FY24, down from AUD 264.3mn in FY23.
  • Trading Near the Resistance: GOZ’s share price was trading around its R1 level recommended on 18 April 2024. Therefore, share price can face resistance at the current levels.
  • Overvalued Multiples: On a forward 12-month basis – key trading multiples (EV/EBITDA, EV/Sales) are higher than the average of Real Estate sector.
  • Market Risk: The performance of Growthpoint Properties Australia is closely tied to the commercial real estate market. Economic downturns, changes in interest rates, and shifts in demand for commercial spaces can impact property values and rental income.

GOZ - Daily Price Chart

Valuation Methodology: Price/Earnings Approach (FY June'25E) (Illustrative)

 

GOZ is expected to trade at discount based on declined in revenue in FY24, lower NPI, decline in office portfolio value in FY24. For conducting the valuation, the following peers have been considered: LendLease Group (ASX: LLC), Dexus (ASX: DXS), Cedar Woods Properties Ltd (ASX: CWP), and other have been considered.

Considering the share price resistance, market uncertainties, other risks associated with the business, the share price can face consolidation at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current price of AUD 2.615, as of 12 September 2024, at 12:25 PM AEST.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 12 September 2024. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Dividend Yield may vary as per the stock price movement.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: In general, it is a level to protect further losses in case of any unfavourable movement in the stock prices.


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