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One Real State Stock Likely to Face Resistance at Current Levels – LIC

May 13, 2024 | Team Kalkine
One Real State Stock Likely to Face Resistance at Current Levels – LIC

LIC:ASX
Investment Type
Small-Cap
Risk Level
Action
Rec. Price (AU$)

Lifestyle Communities Limited (ASX: LIC)

Lifestyle Communities Limited (ASX: LIC) is an Australian property development and management company, which was listed on ASX on 15th December 1998.

Recommendation Rationale – SELL at AUD 13.590

  • Financial Performance: In 1HFY24, the company actively developed 10 projects, and scheduled two more projects for launch during 2024. In 1HFY24, LIC’s Annuity revenue increased by 16% YoY, owing to higher rental revenue. However, NPAT during the period were impacted due to lower new home settlements and increased pre-sales and marketing expenditure for new projects.
  • Recent Update: On 23 April 2024, LIC stated that post its AUD 275mn capital raising program commenced in February 2024, the company has agreed to the commercial terms on three of the land opportunities and is presently in an exclusive due diligence phase on each site.
  • Outlook: For FY24, the company expects new home settlements to be in the range of 290 to 310, with settlement expectations for FY25 to be in the range of 425 to 475. Given the marketing conditions and settlement timeframes, the company expects new home settlement to be in the range of 1,080 to 1,130 for FY23 to FY25. LIC has reiterated its view to deliver 1,400 to 1,700 new home settlements for a period of 3 years (FY24 to FY26).
  • Emerging Risks: The business’ operations are dependent on the labour availability market, and hence the functions might be affected. Considering the market volatility, its properties prices are dependent on the external demand and supply of the raw material, it’s sourcing, and properties’ valuations etc.

LIC Daily Chart

Valuation Methodology: Price/Earnings Approach (FY June'25E) (Illustrative)

Stock might trade at a slight premium to its peers, the recent land acquisitions, the company’s development pipeline, growing demand for LIC’s product, etc. For valuation, few peers like Ingenia Communities Group (ASX: INA), Mirvac Group (ASX: MGR), Centuria Industrial Reit (ASX: CIP), and others have been considered. Considering the current trading levels and risks associated, downside indicated by the valuation, it is prudent to book profit at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current price of AUD 13.59 (as of May 13, 2024, at 10:20 AM AEST).

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 13 May 2024. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: In general, it is a level to protect further losses in case of any unfavourable movement in the stock prices.


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