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One Real Estate Stock Trading Near Resistance Levels – EGH

Aug 16, 2024 | Team Kalkine
One Real Estate Stock Trading Near Resistance Levels – EGH

EGH:ASX
Investment Type
Small-Cap
Risk Level
Action
Rec. Price (AU$)

Eureka Group Holdings Limited (ASX: EGH) 

Eureka Group Holdings Limited (ASX: EGH) provides independent rental accommodation to independent retirees who are supported by the Australian Government pension. The company was listed on ASX on 01 July 2004.

Recommendation Rationale – SELL at AUD 0.60

  • Trading Around Resistance: EGH’s share price surpassed its R1 level recommended on 11 June 2024.
  • Overvalued Multiples: On a forward 12-month basis, the stock is trading at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 17.3x vs industry median of 8.6x.
  • Technical Standpoint: The momentum oscillator, 14-day RSI (~78.95) indicates that share price is trading in the overbought zone; therefore, retracement can be expected at the current levels.
  • Financial Performance: The reported profit after tax decreased to AUD 6.3mn in 1HFY24 from AUD 7.8mn reported in 1HFY23, primarily due to reduced property revaluations and increased interest costs. Borrowings as of 31 December 2023 stood at AUD 91.9mn, up from AUD 69.6mn as at 30 June 2023. The company's growth momentum could be constrained by its significant debt levels.
  • Emerging Risks: EGH’s businesses might be affected by the ups and downs of the markets their clients operate in, which impact when projects get approved and funded. This volatility brings risks like financial instability during economic downturns. Overall, these macroeconomic factors could delay some customer projects in the short term. Also, the business could be affected by unavailability of liquidity as it requires ample funds to run operations in an efficient manner.

EGH Daily Chart

EGH Daily Technical Chart, Data Source: REFINITIV

Valuation Methodology: P/E Approach (FY June'25E) (Illustrative)

Given the continuous growth from existing village, acquisition synergies, increase in demand and rental growth, etc., the stock might trade at a slight premium to its peers. For valuation, few peers like Waypoint REIT Ltd (ASX: WPR), Charter Hall Group (ASX: CHC), Centuria Industrial Reit (ASX: CIP), and other have been considered. Considering that the stock has surpassed its R1 level, share price movement, other risks associated with the business, and downside indicated by the valuation, it can face resistance at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current price of AUD 0.60, as of 16 August 2024, at 2:15 PM AEST.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 16 August 2024. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: In general, it is a level to protect further losses in case of any unfavourable movement in the stock prices.


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