Harley-Davidson Inc

Harley-Davidson Inc (NYSE: HOG) serves as the parent organization for both Harley-Davidson Motor Company and Harley-Davidson Financial Services. The company conducts its operations across three main segments: Harley-Davidson Motor Company (HDMC), LiveWire, and Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS).

Key Financial Updates:

• Harley-Davidson Reports Q2 2025 Financial Results Amid Market Headwinds: Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE: HOG) announced its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, reflecting the challenges of a weakening macroeconomic environment and uncertain tariff conditions. The company recorded diluted earnings per share (EPS) of USD 0.88, down from USD 1.63 in the same quarter of 2024, marking a 46% decline. Consolidated revenue for the quarter was USD 1.31 billion, a 19% decrease year-over-year, while net income attributable to Harley-Davidson dropped by 51% to USD 108 million. The decline was largely attributed to reduced demand for discretionary goods and a strategic decision to scale down dealer inventories.
• Motorcycle Segment Weighed Down by Lower Shipments and Soft Demand: The Harley-Davidson Motor Company (HDMC) segment faced a substantial year-over-year revenue contraction of 23%, led by a 28% decline in global motorcycle shipments. Operating income in this segment fell sharply by 69% to USD 61 million, with the operating margin dropping from 14.7% in Q2 2024 to 5.9% in Q2 2025. Weak consumer sentiment, higher interest rates, and economic uncertainty impacted retail sales globally, with North America seeing a 17% decrease, Asia Pacific 21%, EMEA 5%, and Latin America 11%.
• Financial Services Segment Enters Strategic Transaction: A major development in the quarter was a strategic transaction involving Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS), which announced a partnership with KKR and PIMCO. This transaction, valued at approximately 1.75x post-transaction book value, is set to unlock USD 1.25 billion in cash for Harley-Davidson—nearly 40% of its current market capitalization. As part of the agreement, HDFS will sell a 4.9% equity stake and transfer over USD 5 billion in existing loan receivables and future originations at a premium, providing long-term benefits to the company’s capital structure.
• Use of Proceeds to Strengthen Financial Flexibility: Harley-Davidson plans to deploy the USD 1.25 billion generated from the HDFS transaction to improve its financial position. Specifically, the company intends to reduce debt by USD 450 million and fast-track its USD 1 billion share repurchase plan by executing USD 500 million in buybacks during the second half of 2025. Additionally, it retains the flexibility to invest up to USD 300 million in growth initiatives. These measures aim to enhance shareholder value and fortify the company's financial resilience in an uncertain market.
• LiveWire Segment Sees Narrower Loss Despite Weak Volumes: The LiveWire electric motorcycle segment continued to report modest revenue of USD 6 million in Q2 2025, unchanged from the prior year, though unit sales plummeted by 65%. Despite the decline in sales, LiveWire’s operating loss narrowed to USD 19 million from USD 28 million in Q2 2024—a 34% improvement—aligning with the company’s cost containment strategy. Harley-Davidson revised LiveWire’s full-year guidance, projecting an operating loss between USD 59 million and USD 69 million, and a total cash usage of USD 50–60 million.
• Operational Liquidity and Capital Deployment Remain Sound: Harley-Davidson ended the second quarter with USD 1.6 billion in cash and cash equivalents. Year-to-date, the company generated USD 509 million in cash from operating activities and paid USD 45 million in cash dividends. Share repurchases amounted to USD 87 million during the first half of the year, though no buybacks occurred in Q2. The company maintained a 23% effective tax rate. Despite withdrawing its full-year guidance for HDMC due to market uncertainties, Harley-Davidson raised its HDFS full-year operating income outlook to a range of USD 525 million to USD 550 million.
• Cautious Outlook Amid Tariff and Economic Uncertainty: As of May 1, 2025, Harley-Davidson suspended its full-year outlook for HDMC, citing the unpredictable nature of global tariffs and weakening macroeconomic trends. The uncertain environment for discretionary spending, compounded by inflation and monetary policy concerns, continues to cloud the company’s forecasting ability. Nevertheless, the HDFS transaction positions Harley-Davidson to maintain liquidity and focus on shareholder returns while cautiously navigating external headwinds.

Technical Observation (on the daily chart):

Harley-Davidson's stock has shown a strong bullish breakout with high volume, indicating renewed investor interest. The price has moved above both the 21-day and 50-day moving averages, suggesting a potential trend reversal, with a possible crossover forming. RSI at 57.47 reflects strengthening momentum without being overbought. 

As per the above-mentioned price action, recent key business and financial updates, momentum in the stock over the last month, and technical indicators analysis, a ‘Watch’ rating has been given to Harley-Davidson Inc (NYSE: HOG) at the current market price of USD 25.68 as of July 31,2025 at 7:35 am PDT. 

Individuals can evaluate the stock based on the support and resistance levels provided in the report in case of keen interest taking into consideration the risk-reward scenario. 

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Related Risk: This report may be looked at from a high-risk perspective and a recommendation is provided for a short duration. This report is solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc. 

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance level is July 31,2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Target Price refers to a price level that the stock is expected to reach as per the relative valuation method and or technical analysis taking into consideration both short-term and long-term scenarios.

Note 5: ‘Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), NASDAQ Capital Markets (NASDAQ), and or REFINITIV. Typically, all sources (NYSE, NASDAQ, or REFINITIV) may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 15-20 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.