Pagaya Technologies Ltd.

Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (NASDAQ – PGY) is a financial technology company that develops AI and data networks for the financial industry. Founded on March 20, 2016, by Gal Krubiner, Sanjiv Das, Yahav Yulzari, and Avital Pardo, the company is headquartered in New York, NY. Pagaya's core product leverages data science, machine learning, and AI technology to evaluate customer applications in real-time. This sophisticated system aids financial institutions by offering a more comprehensive and rapid assessment of applicants. Ultimately, Pagaya aims to enhance the financial ecosystem through better risk modeling and expanded financial access enabled by its advanced technology.

Pagaya Q3 2025 Results Summary

• Record Financial Performance: Pagaya reported record performance across key metrics, including $23 million GAAP Net income (up $90 million YoY), $107 million Adjusted EBITDA (up 91% YoY), and $350 million Total revenue and other income (up 36% YoY).
• Increased Network Volume: Network volume reached a record $2.8 billion (up 19% YoY), primarily driven by growth in the Auto and Point-of-Sale verticals.
• Raised Full-Year Guidance: The company raised its full-year guidance for the third consecutive quarter for Total Revenue, Adjusted EBITDA, and GAAP Net Income. The new full-year 2025 outlook for Total Revenue and Other Income is expected to be between $1,300 million and $1,325 million.
• Strengthened Financial Position: Pagaya raised $500 million in corporate debt and expanded its Revolving Credit Facility to $132 million, which lowered the interest rate by nearly 35%, bringing the cost of substantially all corporate debt to or below the high-yield bond coupon of 8.875%.
• Expanded Partnerships and Platforms: Key partnerships were announced, including an inaugural Auto forward flow agreement with Castlelake to purchase up to $500 million in Auto Loans, and a partnership with One William Street Capital Management (OWS) for the sale of residual certificates in the November AAA-rated Auto ABS securitization.

Technical Summary

Despite recent downside, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. is showing early signs of stabilization near key Fibonacci support levels. The RSI is approaching oversold territory, which could attract bargain hunters and prompt a relief rally. With volume picking up, any positive news or technical bounce from the $22.43 to $17.10 support zone may fuel a reversal and renewed interest from momentum traders.

PGY’s Daily Price Chart. Source: Refinitiv, Analysis by Kalkine Group

Conclusion

Fundamentally, the company demonstrated exceptional execution in Q3 2025, delivering record GAAP Net Income ($23M, up $90M YoY) and Adjusted EBITDA ($107M, up 91% YoY). Raising the full-year guidance for the third consecutive quarter, coupled with growth in key verticals like Auto and Point-of-Sale, confirms a trajectory of profitable scale and disciplined underwriting. Technically, the recent downside appears to be moderating. The stock is showing initial signs of stabilizing near the critical $22.43 to $17.10 Fibonacci support zone. With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) nearing oversold levels and volume increasing, the market seems to be pricing in the company's strong operational performance against broader market pressure. A technical bounce from the current support, potentially catalyzed by continued positive momentum in its new forward flow agreements, could trigger the relief rally anticipated by momentum traders, aligning the price action with the company's upward financial trajectory. Based on above rationale a “Buy” recommendation has been given on “PGY” stock at the closing price of USD 24.45 as of November 07, 2025.  

Individuals can evaluate the stock based on the support and resistance levels provided in the report in case of keen interest taking into consideration the risk-reward scenario. 

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Related Risk: This report may be looked at from a high-risk perspective and a recommendation is provided for a short duration. This report is solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc. 

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance level is November 07,2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Target Price refers to a price level that the stock is expected to reach as per the relative valuation method and or technical analysis taking into consideration both short-term and long-term scenarios.

Note 5: ‘Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), NASDAQ Capital Markets (NASDAQ), and or REFINITIV. Typically, all sources (NYSE, NASDAQ, or REFINITIV) may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 15-20 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice,