blue-chip

One NASDAQ - Listed IT Services Stock Under Radar - MDB

May 23, 2025 | Team Kalkine
One NASDAQ - Listed IT Services Stock Under Radar - MDB
Image source: Shutterstock

MDB:NASDAQ
Investment Type
Large-cap
Risk Level
Action
Rec. Price (US$)

MongoDB, Inc

MongoDB, Inc (NASDAQ: MDB) provides a developer data platform designed to support modern application development. The platform features a globally distributed operational database and a suite of integrated data services that help development teams meet diverse and evolving application needs. Customers can deploy the platform either as a managed service or manage it themselves, depending on their preferences and requirements.

  • MongoDB Ends Fiscal 2025 with Strong Performance Driven by Atlas Growth: MongoDB concluded fiscal 2025 on a strong note, reporting robust growth in its Atlas product and significant margin expansion. Atlas revenue grew by 24% year-over-year, exceeding management’s expectations for consumption in the fourth quarter. The company attributed this outperformance to the platform’s flexibility, scalability, and high performance, which continue to attract new workloads. Looking ahead to fiscal 2026, MongoDB expects stable consumption growth in Atlas, which remains its primary driver of overall business expansion.
  • Financial Highlights for Q4 Fiscal 2025: For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, MongoDB reported total revenue of USD 548.4 million, a 20% increase compared to the prior year. Subscription revenue rose 19% to USD 531.0 million, while services revenue climbed 34% to USD 17.4 million. Gross profit for the quarter was USD 399.4 million, representing a gross margin of 73%, slightly down from 75% in the previous year. On a non-GAAP basis, gross profit was USD 411.7 million, yielding a 75% margin. Operating losses narrowed significantly, with a GAAP operating loss of USD 18.6 million compared to USD 71.0 million in the previous year. Non-GAAP income from operations rose to USD 112.5 million, up from USD 69.2 million a year earlier.
  • Net Income and Cash Flow Developments: MongoDB achieved a GAAP net income of USD 15.8 million, or USD 0.20 per share, in the fourth quarter, reversing a net loss of USD 55.5 million in the year-ago period. Non-GAAP net income increased to USD 108.4 million, or USD 1.28 per share, up from USD 71.1 million or USD 0.86 per share. Cash flow from operations for the quarter totaled USD 50.5 million, slightly down from USD 54.6 million last year. After capital expenditures and lease payments, free cash flow came in at USD 22.9 million, a decrease from USD 50.5 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024. As of January 31, 2025, the company had USD 2.3 billion in liquidity.
  • Full-Year Fiscal 2025 Performance Overview: For the full year, MongoDB recorded total revenue of USD 2.01 billion, marking a 19% increase from the previous year. Subscription revenue also rose 19% to USD 1.94 billion, while services revenue increased 12% to USD 62.6 million. The full-year gross profit was USD 1.47 billion, representing a 73% gross margin, while the non-GAAP gross margin stood at 76%. The company reduced its GAAP operating loss to USD 216.1 million from USD 233.7 million, and improved non-GAAP operating income to USD 299.3 million from USD 270.4 million. The annual GAAP net loss improved to USD 129.1 million, or USD 1.73 per share, while non-GAAP net income grew to USD 308.2 million, or USD 3.66 per share.
  • Strategic Initiatives and Market Recognition: During the fourth quarter, MongoDB made strategic moves to strengthen its AI capabilities by acquiring Voyage AI, a developer of advanced embedding and reranking models. This integration is expected to enhance MongoDB’s ability to support real-time, AI-powered applications. The company also redeemed its 2026 convertible notes, eliminating all debt from its balance sheet, and initiated a USD 200 million stock buyback program to mitigate the dilutive impact of the Voyage acquisition. MongoDB was named a Leader for the third consecutive year in Gartner's 2024 Magic Quadrant for Cloud Database Management Systems, underscoring its strong market position.
  • Guidance for Fiscal 2026: For fiscal 2026, MongoDB provided guidance reflecting continued growth expectations. The company forecasts Q1 revenue between USD 524.0 million and USD 529.0 million and full-year revenue between USD 2.24 billion and USD 2.28 billion. Non-GAAP income from operations is projected to range from USD 54.0 million to USD 58.0 million for the first quarter and from USD 210.0 million to USD 230.0 million for the full year. Non-GAAP net income per share is expected to be between USD 0.63 and USD 0.67 in Q1, and USD 2.44 to USD 2.62 for the full year. These projections do not include certain GAAP items due to their variability and unpredictability.

Technical Observation (on the daily chart):

MongoDB Inc. (MDB) is showing signs of a short-term bullish reversal, with the stock trading at USD 188.58 and the 21-day moving average crossing above the 50-day—an encouraging technical signal. The RSI at 57 suggests improving momentum without overbought conditions, and price action above both key moving averages reinforces the upward trend.

 MongoDB delivered a strong finish to fiscal 2025, driven by robust 24% growth in Atlas revenue and significant improvements in profitability, including a swing to GAAP net income in Q4. The company's continued leadership in cloud database management, strategic AI-focused acquisition of Voyage AI, and a clean balance sheet with no debt highlight its innovation and financial discipline. With steady Atlas consumption expected and solid guidance for fiscal 2026, MongoDB is well-positioned for sustained growth and value creation in the evolving AI-driven data landscape.

As per the above-mentioned price action, recent key business and financial updates, momentum in the stock over the last month, and technical indicators analysis, a ‘Buy’ rating has been given to MongoDB, Inc (NASDAQ: MDB) at the closing market price of USD 188.58 as of May 22,2025. 

Individuals can evaluate the stock based on the support and resistance levels provided in the report in case of keen interest taking into consideration the risk-reward scenario. 

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Related Risk: This report may be looked at from a high-risk perspective and a recommendation is provided for a short duration. This report is solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc. 

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance level is May 22,2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Target Price refers to a price level that the stock is expected to reach as per the relative valuation method and or technical analysis taking into consideration both short-term and long-term scenarios.

Note 5: ‘Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), NASDAQ Capital Markets (NASDAQ), and or REFINITIV. Typically, all sources (NYSE, NASDAQ, or REFINITIV) may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 15-20 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.


Disclaimer-

This report has been issued by Kalkine Pty Limited (ABN 34 154 808 312) (Australian financial services licence number 425376) (“Kalkine”) and prepared by Kalkine and its related bodies corporate authorised to provide general financial product advice. Kalkine.com.au and associated pages are published by Kalkine.

Any advice provided in this report is general advice only and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should therefore consider whether the advice is appropriate to your objectives, financial situation and needs before acting upon it.

There may be a Product Disclosure Statement, Information Statement or other offer document for the securities or other financial products referred to in Kalkine reports. You should obtain a copy of the relevant Product Disclosure Statement, Information Statement or offer document and consider the statement or document before making any decision about whether to acquire the security or product.

Choosing an investment is an important decision. If you do not feel confident making a decision based on the recommendations Kalkine has made in our reports, you should consider seeking advice from a financial adviser, stockbroker or other professional (including taxation and legal advice) before acting on any advice in this report or on the Kalkine website. Not all investments are appropriate for all people.

The information in this report and on the Kalkine website has been prepared from a wide variety of sources, which Kalkine, to the best of its knowledge and belief, considers accurate. Kalkine has made every effort to ensure the reliability of information contained in its reports, newsletters and websites. All information represents our views at the date of publication and may change without notice. The information in this report does not constitute an offer to sell securities or other financial products or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities or other financial products. Our reports contain general recommendations to invest in securities and other financial products.

Kalkine is not responsible for, and does not guarantee, the performance of the investments mentioned in this report This report may contain information on past performance of particular investments. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. Hypothetical returns may not reflect actual performance. Any displays of potential investment opportunities are for sample purposes only and may not actually be available to investors. To the extent permitted by law, Kalkine excludes all liability for any loss or damage arising from the use of this report, the Kalkine website and any information published on the Kalkine website (including any indirect or consequential loss, any data loss or data corruption). If the law prohibits this exclusion, Kalkine hereby limits its liability, to the extent permitted by law, to the resupply of services..

Please also read our Terms & Conditions and Financial Services Guide for further information. Employees and/or associates of Kalkine and its related entities may hold interests in the securities or other financial products covered in this report or on the Kalkine website. Any such employees and associates are required to comply with certain safeguards, procedures and disclosures as required by law.

Kalkine Media Pty Ltd, an affiliate of Kalkine Pty Ltd, may have received, or be entitled to receive, financial consideration in connection with providing information about certain entity(s) covered on its website including entities covered in this Report.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.