Kalkine has a fully transformed New Avatar.

blue-chip

One Mining Stock Can Face Resistance at the Current Levels - S32

Sep 24, 2024 | Team Kalkine
One Mining Stock Can Face Resistance at the Current Levels - S32

S32:ASX
Investment Type
Large-cap
Risk Level
Action
Rec. Price (AU$)

South32 Ltd (ASX: S32)

South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) is a globally diversified mining and metals company headquartered in Australia. It focuses on the extraction and production of a range of minerals, including aluminum, copper, silver, nickel, and manganese.

Recommendation Rationale – SELL at AUD 3.350

  • Trading Around Resistance: S32’s share price is hovering around the ‘Resistance 1’ level recommended on 29 August 2024; thus, share price can face resistance at the current levels.
  • Technical Standpoint: Given that the 14-day RSI is currently around 68.98 level, indicating it is approaching the overbought zone and can face retracement in the short term.
  • Overvalued Multiples: On a forward 12-month basis, EV/EBITDA and Price/Earnings multiples are higher than the average of Metals & Mining industry.
  • Commodity Price Volatility: The company's profitability is closely tied to fluctuating commodity prices, which can lead to financial instability during downturns.
  • Decreased Profitability: The company reported a loss after tax attributable to members of US$203 million for FY24, a decline from the previous year's loss of US$173 million. This reflects ongoing challenges in achieving profitability. Underlying earnings fell sharply by 59%, from US$916 million in FY23 to US$380 million in FY24, indicating substantial operational and market difficulties.

S32 Daily Chart

 (Source: REFINITIV; Analysis by Kalkine Group)

Valuation Methodology: Price/Earnings Approach (FY Jun'25E) (Illustrative)

S32 is likely to trade at a slight premium on the back enhanced capital management program, portfolio simplification through sale of Illawarra Metallurgical Coal, and production increases in several areas. The following peers have been considered for conducting valuation: Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR), IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO), and BlueScope Steel Ltd (ASX: BSL).

Given its current trading levels, market uncertainties, and risks associated, the share price can witness resistance at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current market price of AUD 3.350, as of 24 September 2024 at 3:06 PM AEST.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 24 September 2024. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Dividend Yield may vary as per the stock price movement. 

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: In general, it is a level to protect further losses in case of any unfavourable movement in the stock prices.


Disclaimer-

This report has been issued by Kalkine Pty Limited (ABN 34 154 808 312) (Australian financial services licence number 425376) (“Kalkine”) and prepared by Kalkine and its related bodies corporate authorised to provide general financial product advice. Kalkine.com.au and associated pages are published by Kalkine.

Any advice provided in this report is general advice only and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should therefore consider whether the advice is appropriate to your objectives, financial situation and needs before acting upon it.

There may be a Product Disclosure Statement, Information Statement or other offer document for the securities or other financial products referred to in Kalkine reports. You should obtain a copy of the relevant Product Disclosure Statement, Information Statement or offer document and consider the statement or document before making any decision about whether to acquire the security or product.

Choosing an investment is an important decision. If you do not feel confident making a decision based on the recommendations Kalkine has made in our reports, you should consider seeking advice from a financial adviser, stockbroker or other professional (including taxation and legal advice) before acting on any advice in this report or on the Kalkine website. Not all investments are appropriate for all people.

The information in this report and on the Kalkine website has been prepared from a wide variety of sources, which Kalkine, to the best of its knowledge and belief, considers accurate. Kalkine has made every effort to ensure the reliability of information contained in its reports, newsletters and websites. All information represents our views at the date of publication and may change without notice. The information in this report does not constitute an offer to sell securities or other financial products or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities or other financial products. Our reports contain general recommendations to invest in securities and other financial products.

Kalkine is not responsible for, and does not guarantee, the performance of the investments mentioned in this report This report may contain information on past performance of particular investments. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. Hypothetical returns may not reflect actual performance. Any displays of potential investment opportunities are for sample purposes only and may not actually be available to investors. To the extent permitted by law, Kalkine excludes all liability for any loss or damage arising from the use of this report, the Kalkine website and any information published on the Kalkine website (including any indirect or consequential loss, any data loss or data corruption). If the law prohibits this exclusion, Kalkine hereby limits its liability, to the extent permitted by law, to the resupply of services..

Please also read our Terms & Conditions and Financial Services Guide for further information. Employees and/or associates of Kalkine and its related entities may hold interests in the securities or other financial products covered in this report or on the Kalkine website. Any such employees and associates are required to comply with certain safeguards, procedures and disclosures as required by law.

Kalkine Media Pty Ltd, an affiliate of Kalkine Pty Ltd, may have received, or be entitled to receive, financial consideration in connection with providing information about certain entity(s) covered on its website including entities covered in this Report.