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One Materials Stock Trading Near Resistance Levels - VUL

Oct 17, 2024 | Team Kalkine
One Materials Stock Trading Near Resistance Levels - VUL

VUL:ASX
Investment Type
Small-Cap
Risk Level
Action
Rec. Price (AU$)

This report is an updated version of the report published on 17 October 2024 at 1:27 PM AEDT.


Vulcan Energy Resources Limited ASX: VUL)

Vulcan Energy Resources Limited (ASX: VUL) is engaged in geothermal energy and lithium exploration and production, with segments in Germany, other European countries (France and Italy) and Australia.

Recommendation Rationale – SELL at AUD 5.03

  • Trading Around Resistance: VUL’s share price surpassed its R1 level recommended on 10 October 2024.
  • Overvalued Multiples: On a forward 12-month basis, the stock is trading at an EV/Sales multiple of 76.9x vs Industry (Metals & Mining) median of 1.7x.
  • Rising Losses & Declining Cash: VUL reported a net loss after tax of EUR 19.3mn in 1HFY24, compared to EUR 15.6mn for the same time last year. This loss was impacted by depreciation and amortization costs of EUR 3.3mn, along with net interest income of EUR 0.9mn. Cash balance for at the end of 30 June 2024 stood at EUR 60.6mn, down from EUR 78.7mn as at 31 December 2023. The decline in cash is attributed to capital expenditures mainly for the construction of the Lithium Extraction Optimization Plant (LEOP) and the Central Lithium Electrolysis Optimization Plant (CLEOP), and ongoing operational costs.
  • Emerging Risks: To meet its financial commitments and optimize operational activities for its customers, the company requires sufficient liquidity to manage uncertainties. Furthermore, as the project is in the early development stage, it may encounter risks related to commercialisation and exploration.

VUL Daily Chart

Valuation Methodology: P/B Relative Valuation Approach (FY Dec'25E) (Illustrative)

 

Given the rising losses, increase in depreciation and amortization costs, risks related to commercialisation and exploration, etc., the company might trade at some discount to its peers. For valuation, few peers including Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO), Piedmont Lithium Inc (ASX: PLL), Sayona Mining Ltd (ASX: SYA), and others have been considered. Considering that the stock has surpassed its R1 level, rally in share price, risks associated, and downside indicated by the valuation, it is prudent to book profits at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current price of AUD 5.03, at 10:30 AM AEDT as of 17 October 2024.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 17 October 2024. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: In general, it is a level to protect further losses in case of any unfavourable movement in the stock prices.


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