This report is an updated version of the report published on 30 June 2025 at 12:16 PM AEST. 

James Hardie Industries PLC (ASX: JHX)

James Hardie Industries PLC (ASX: JHX) is a global manufacturer of fiber cement and fiber gypsum building products, primarily used for residential and commercial construction.

Recommendation Rationale – SELL at AUD 42.81

• Trading Near Resistance Levels: JHX’s share price surpassed its R1 level recommended on 29 April 2025. Therefore, JHX can face correction at the current levels.

• FY25 Results: Net sales for the year declined by 1% compared to the prior year, primarily due to reduced volumes in the North America and Asia Pacific regions. Net profit after tax decreased by 17% year-over-year in FY25, impacted by a lower gross margin, additional restructuring expenses, and costs associated with the merger agreement with AZEK.
• Overvalued Multiples: On a forward 12-month basis – key trading multiples (EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA, P/E, P/BV, and Price/Cash Flow) are higher than the industry median of Basic Materials sector.

• Emerging Risks: JHX is exposed to risks associated with fluctuations in the prices of key raw materials, including cement, sand, and cellulose fibers, which may negatively impact profit margins. Additionally, severe weather events and other climate-related disruptions pose a threat to the Group’s assets and operational continuity.

JHX Daily Chart

Valuation Methodology: P/E Approach (FY Mar'26E) (Illustrative)

Stock might trade at a slight discount to its peers, considering the reduced volumes in the North America and Asia Pacific regions during FY25, lower gross margin, additional restructuring expenses, fluctuations in the prices of key raw materials, and other factors. Peers include Reliance Worldwide Corporation Ltd (ASX: RWC), GWA Group Ltd (ASX: GWA), and Wagners Holding Company Ltd (ASX: WGN). 

Considering that the stock has surpassed its R1 level, macroeconomic uncertainty, rally in share price movement, current trading level, and risks associated, the share price can face consolidation at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current price of AUD 42.81 (as of 30 June 2025, at 10:35 AM AEST).   

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing. 

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 30 June 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.    

Note 4: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice. 

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: In general, it is a level to protect further losses in case of any unfavourable movement in the stock prices.