This report is an updated version of the report published on 11 July 2025 at 11:56 AM AEST.

Pilbara Minerals Limited (ASX: PLS)

PLS is an Australian lithium mining company headquartered in West Perth, Western Australia. Established in 2005, the company focuses on the exploration, development, and operation of lithium and other mineral resources.

Recommendation Rationale – SELL at AUD 1.615

• Financial Highlights: PLS experienced a decline in 1HFY25 financial results, primarily due to lower lithium prices. Revenue dropped by 44% YoY to AUD 426mn in 1HFY25 from AUD 757mn in 1HFY24. This reduction also impacted profitability, with Underlying EBITDA falling by a sharp 83% YoY to AUD 74mn in 1HFY25 from AUD 431mn in 1HFY24.
• Trading Near the Resistance: PLS stock has surpassed its R1 level recommended on 11 June 2025. Therefore, share price can face resistance at the current levels.
• Overvalued Multiples: On a forward 12-month basis – key trading multiples (EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA, Price/Cash Flow) are higher than median of the Basic Materials Sector.
• Market Risk: Uncertainty in advancing the Waterberg Project to development and construction, particularly securing long-term permits for exporting precious metals concentrate, poses a significant risk to project timelines, capital expenditure, and overall economic viability

PLS’s Daily Price Chart

Valuation Methodology: Price/Cash Flow Per Share Approach (FY June'26E) (Illustrative)

Stock might trade at a slight discount to its peers considering the YoY decrease in revenue in 1HFY25, decline in spodumene concentrate price, and YoY reduction in EBITDA in 1HFY25. For conducting the valuation, the following peers have been considered: IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO), Capricorn Metals Ltd (ASX: CMM), and Gold Road Resources Ltd (ASX: GOR).

Considering that the stock has surpassed its R1 level, rally in share price, current trading level, and risks associated, the share price can face consolidation at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current market price of AUD 1.615, as of 11 July 2025, at 10:20 AM AEST.

Pilbara Minerals Limited (ASX: PLS) is a part of Global Green Portfolio. 

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing. 

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 11 July 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice. 

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: In general, it is a level to protect further losses in case of any unfavourable movement in the stock prices.