This report is an updated version of the report published on 14 December 2026 at 3:55 PM AEDT.

 Catalyst Metals Limited (ASX: CYL) 

Catalyst Metals Limited (ASX: CYL) is a gold exploration and development company focused on the 40km Plutonic Gold Belt in central Western Australia. The company is developing three additional mines to lift output to ~200koz.

Recommendation Rationale – SELL at AUD 7.66

• Technical Standpoint: CYL’s share price has surpassed the R1 level of AUD 7.456 recommended on 25 November 2025. Meanwhile, its 14-Day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around ~61.29 level, suggesting the stock is approaching overbought level. Hence, the stock may witness some consolidation.
• Operational Weaknesses: Production hit 108,018 oz pa in FY25 (slightly lower than FY24), and the annual report flagged delays in resource upgrades and exploration disappointments at satellite deposits, limiting reserve life to under 10 years. Regulatory scrutiny in WA mining, including environmental compliance for tailings, adds execution risks.
• Exploration Shortfalls: Heavy dependence on Bendigo region and Henty results exposes CYL to valuation drops if drilling fails to deliver high-grade resources, with current reserve replacement lagging production growth. Satellite deposit disappointments shorten mine life further, risking production cliffs in future.
• Overvalued Multiples: On a forward 12-month basis – key trading multiples (EV/EBITDA, Price/Earnings, and Price/Cash Flow) are higher than median of the Basic Materials sector.

Daily Price Chart

 (Source: REFINITIV; Analysis by Kalkine Group)

Valuation Methodology: Price/Cash Flow Approach (Illustrative)

The stock might trade at a slight premium to its peers given the 42.9% and 502.3% YoY growth in FY25’s Revenue and PBT, respectively.

For conducting the valuation, following peers have been considered - Regis Resources Ltd (ASX: RRL), Ora Banda Mining Ltd (ASX: OBM), and Alkane Resources Ltd (ASX: ALK).

Given the stock has surpassed its R1 level, recent rally in the share price, and risks associated, it is prudent to sell the stock at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current market price of AUD 7.66, as of 14 January 2026, at 3:50 PM AEDT.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 14 January 2026. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: In general, it is a level to protect further losses in case of any unfavourable movement in the stock prices.