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One Energy Stock Trading Near Resistance Levels -KAR

Apr 03, 2024 | Team Kalkine
One Energy Stock Trading Near Resistance Levels -KAR

KAR:ASX
Investment Type
Small-Cap
Risk Level
Action
Rec. Price (AU$)

This report is an updated version of the report published on the 3 April 2024 at 2:30 PM AEDT.

Karoon Energy Limited (ASX: KAR)

Karoon Energy Limited (ASX: KAR) operates as an oil and gas exploration and production company in Australia, the United States of America, and Brazil.

Recommendation Rationale – SELL at AUD 2.260

  • Financial Performance: The company remains on track to deliver on its strategy to diversify its operations over the six months to 31 December 2023 (TY23), the transition year period from June to December. KSL’s NPAT for TY23 increased 129% to USD 144.7mn compared to USD 63.1mn reported in the prior six-month period. The rise can be attributed to higher hydrocarbon sales, improved oil price realisations and lower unit production costs.
  • Outlook: For CY24 (12 months to 31 December 24), Brazil production is expected to be in the range of 7.2 to 9.0mn barrels (MMbbl). Total production for CY24 including the Who Dat assets, which is anticipated to be in a range of 11.2 to 13.5mn barrels of oil equivalent (MMboe). KAR continues to evaluate exploration and development opportunities, focused on Brazil, and Australia.
  • Emerging Risks: KAR is exposed to the risk associated with fluctuation in oil prices as it could impact on the company’s financial performance. Other risks include commodity price fluctuation, geopolitical risks, weather, and climate change risks, etc.

KAR Daily Chart

Valuation Methodology: Price/Earnings Approach (FY June'25E) (Illustrative)

Given the risk associated with fluctuation in oil prices, commodity price fluctuation, geopolitical risks, weather, climate change risks, etc, the stock might trade at some discount to its peers. For valuation, few peers like Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT), Santos Ltd (ASX: STO), and Australis Oil & Gas Ltd (ASX: ATS) have been considered. Considering that the stock is trading near to its R2 level, downside as indicated by the valuation, current trading levels, rally in share price movement and risks associated, it is prudent to book profits at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current price of AUD 2.260 (as of April 3, 2024, at 10:15 AM AEDT).

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is April 3, 2024. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: In general, it is a level to protect further losses in case of any unfavourable movement in the stock prices.


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