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One Consumer Discretionary Stock Facing Resistance at Current Level - MTO

Nov 28, 2024 | Team Kalkine
One Consumer Discretionary Stock Facing Resistance at Current Level - MTO
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MTO:ASX
Investment Type
Small-Cap
Risk Level
Action
Rec. Price (AU$)

This report is an updated version of the report published on 28 November 2024 at 12:15 PM AEDT.

MotorCycle Holdings Limited (ASX: MTO)

MotorCycle Holdings Limited (ASX: MTO) is an Australia-based motorcycle dealership and accessories company.

Recommendation Rationale - SELL at AUD 1.90

  • Facing Resistance: MTO has surpassed Resistance 1 level recommended on 31 October 2024 and is approaching R2; thus, it can face resistance at the current levels.
  • Lower Net Margin: In FY24, MTO reported a net margin of 2.4% while the industry median is 6.9%.
  • Profit Decline: During FY24, operating gross profit and underlying EBITDA fell 2% and 18% YoY, respectively.
  • Economic Sensitivity: Motorcycles and related products are often discretionary purchases, making the company highly sensitive to economic downturns. A challenging economic landscape can negatively impact consumer spending and demand for new and used motorcycles.
  • Supply Chain and Distribution Challenges: Operational interruptions in the wholesale parts and accessories business highlight vulnerabilities in the supply chain. Future disruptions could negatively affect financial performance.

MTO Daily Chart

(Source: REFINITIV; Analysis by Kalkine Group)

Valuation Methodology: Price/Earnings Approach (FY Jun'25E) (Illustrative)

MTO is expected to trade at a discount compared to its peers considering its 39% YoY decline in FY24 NPAT and reduced profitability margins. For conducting the valuation, the following peers have been considered: Mosaic Brands Ltd (ASX: MOZ), Autosports Group Ltd (ASX: ASG), and Eagers Automotive Ltd (ASX: APE).

Considering that the stock has crossed its R1 level and approaching R2 level, market uncertainties, and risks associated, the share price can witness some correction at the current levels before moving higher. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current market price of AUD 1.90, as of 28 November 2024, at 10:20 AM AEDT.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 28 November 2024. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Dividend Yield may vary as per the stock price movement.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: In general, it is a level to protect further losses in case of any unfavourable movement in the stock prices.


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