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One Commercial & Professional Services Stock May Face Resistance at Current Level – CUP

Aug 27, 2024 | Team Kalkine
One Commercial & Professional Services Stock May Face Resistance at Current Level – CUP

CUP:ASX
Investment Type
Small-Cap
Risk Level
Action
Rec. Price (AU$)

This report is an updated version of the report published on 27 August 2024 at 3:00 PM AEST.

Count Limited (ASX: CUP) 

CUP is an Australia-based network of professional accounting and advice companies that provide accounting and related services. The company offers a range of services, including accounting, financial advice, and financial services.

Recommendation Rationale – SELL at AUD 0.66

  • Trading Around Resistance: CUP’s share price surpassed its R1 level recommended on 18 July 2024.
  • Overvalued Multiples: On a forward 12-month basis, the stock is trading at a P/B multiple of 1.3x vs industry median of 1.1x.
  • Technical Standpoint: The momentum oscillator, 14-day RSI (~69.21) indicates that share price is trading in the overbought zone; therefore, retracement can be expected at the current levels.
  • Financial Performance: Interest bearing loans and borrowings as of 31 December 2023 stood at AUD 19.6mn, up from AUD 15.6mn as at 30 June 2023. The company's growth momentum could be constrained by its high debt levels.
  • Emerging Risks: The company's operational and financial well-being might be affected by increasing competition from industry peers. Additionally, CUP faces a more intricate regulatory landscape, and any lapses in compliance could result in fines, penalties, and other consequences.

CUP Daily Chart

(Source: REFINITIV; Analysis by Kalkine Group)

Valuation Methodology: P/E Approach (FY June'25E) (Illustrative)

Given intricate regulatory landscape, increase in borrowing, decline in cash balance, etc., the stock might trade at some discount to its peers. For valuation, few peers like McMillan Shakespeare Ltd (ASX: MMS), IPH Ltd (ASX: IPH), APM Human Services International Ltd (ASX: APM), and others have been considered. Considering that the stock has surpassed its R1 level, share price movement, other risks associated with the business, and downside indicated by the valuation, the share price can witness consolidation at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current market price of AUD 0.660, as of 27 August 2024 at 10:06 AM AEST.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 27 August 2024. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: In general, it is a level to protect further losses in case of any unfavourable movement in the stock prices.


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