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One Artificial Intelligence-Based Company Trading Near Resistance Levels -APX

Jul 30, 2024 | Team Kalkine
One Artificial Intelligence-Based Company Trading Near Resistance Levels -APX

APX:ASX
Investment Type
Small-Cap
Risk Level
Action
Rec. Price (AU$)

This report is an updated version of the report published on 30 July 2024 at 3:55 PM AEST.

 

 Appen Limited (ASX: APX) 

Appen Limited (ASX: APX) is a technology company enabling organisations to launch artificial intelligence (AI) systems. The company has more than 25 years of experience in data sourcing, data annotation, and model evaluation. Its products and services aid governments as well as players in the technology, automotive, financial services, retail, and healthcare space.

Recommendation Rationale – SELL at AUD 0.695

  • Trading Around Resistance: APX’s share price surpassed its R2 level recommended on 27 June 2024.
  • Overvalued Multiples: On a forward 12-month basis, the stock is trading at a Price/Cash Flow multiple of 13.8x vs industry (Technology) average of -18.6x.
  • Technical Commentary: On the daily chart, APX prices are trading below the horizontal trendline resistance level. Moreover, the momentum oscillator RSI (14-period) indicates an overbought condition with a reading of around 74.58. However, the prices are trading above the trend-following indicator 21-period SMA, which may act as a support zone.
  • 2QFY24 & 1HFY24 Trading Update: Revenue for 2QFY24 was US 55.0mn, marking a 16% decline compared to the same period last year, which included USD 18.3mn from Google. Net cash from operations was USD 2.6mn for the quarter, a decrease from USD 8.8mn in 1QFY24. In 1HFY24, revenue declined ~18% on a year over year basis
  • Financial Highlights for FY23: Total operating revenue fell by 29.7% to USD 273.0mn, and APX reported an underlying EBITDA (excluding foreign exchange effects) loss of $20.4 million, compared to a profit of USD 13.6mn in FY22. Global service revenue fell ~36.12% YoY in FY23. Group revenue and other income fell by 29.4% YoY in FY23, mainly due to a decline in revenue from Global Services.
  • Emerging Risks: Factors such as competition from niche and low-cost providers, customers choosing to do data annotation tasks in-house, and changing project profile may impact the company’s operations.
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APX Daily Chart

Considering that the stock has surpassed its R2 level, share price movement, other risks associated with the business, and technical indicators, it can face resistance at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current price of AUD 0.695, as of 30 July 2024, at 3:00 PM AEST. 

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing. 

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 30 July 2024. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above. 

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: In general, it is a level to protect further losses in case of any unfavourable movement in the stock prices.


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