Newcrest Mining Analysis
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FY15 performance:Newcrest Mining Limited (ASX: NCM) recently reported better than estimated 2015 fiscal year performance, with underlying profit being 19% yoy higher to $515 million. The gold production slightly improved by 1% yoy to 2.423 million ounces. But, the copper production delivered solid production surging 12% yoy to 96.8 thousand tonnes. On the other hand, the group’s AISC witnessed 12% yoy decline to USD 789/oz, but the group AISC margin improved to USD 447/oz. Meanwhile, Newcrest Mining’s free cash flow increased by $953 million to $1,086 million during 2015 fiscal year, while the net debt reduced by 22% yoy to USD 2.89 billion in FY15. Accordingly, the Net debt to EBITDA decreased by 15% as compared to FY14, while gearing reduced to 29.3% as at June 30 2015, against 33.8% as at June 30 2014.
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Underlying Profit Performance (Source: Company Reports)
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Segment Highlights:Cadia segment reported a solid performance during the 2015 fiscal year, driven by Ridgeway & Panel Cave 1 performance. Gold production and copper production at Cadia rose 13% and 22% on a year over year basis respectively. The Panel Cave 2 production was deferred after the seismic event and the development work restarted during fourth quarter of 2015, which is estimated to incur an expenditure of around $96 million. Newcrest Mining also applied to increase its processing permit to 32 mtpa capacity. The Cadia project generated a free cash flow of $606 million in FY15. Newcrest Mining intends to grow its Cadia’s gold production to 750+koz3 by FY17. With regards to the Lihir, the project delivered outstanding annual grinding throughput of 11.6mtpa in FY15 against 10.1mtpa in FY14. The project is on track to reach its sustainable 12mtpa objective by the end of the year, and intends to achieve a sustainable grinding throughput target of 13mtpa3. However, Lihir’s gold production fell 5% yoy on 9% lower grade during FY15. Lihir generated a free cash flow of $154 million during fiscal year of 2015. As per the Telfer project, USD AISC fell 13% yoy to 803/oz but generated a free cash flow of AUD 271 million during FY15. However, fatality occurred in the site May 2015. Moreover the fourth quarter of 2015 was affected by restricted underground mine operations during May-August 2015, restricted open pit access due to void opening on main access ramp and equipment was also diverted to pre-strip campaign during the open pit disruption. Hidden Valley also encountered two fatalities during December 2014 (FY15) and July 2015 (FY16).
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Cadia production (Source: Company Reports)
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Golpu offers medium term opportunity: Golpu project is an ore body having Mineral Resources of 9mt of copper and 20moz of gold (100%). The Stage one and two Feasibility Study is estimated to be finished by December 2015. The advanced exploration as well as feasibility support are ongoing.
Golpu copper gold deposits, FY16 exploration priorities (Source: Company Reports)
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Competitive Edge: Newcrest Mining’s Edge program delivered cash benefits of around $390 million till date. The group has been improving its operational performance, optimizing costs, and improving working capital to enhance its overall efficiency to offset the pressure coming from falling commodity prices. The group is focusing on high margins through its Cadia production. Accordingly, the EBITDA margins improved to 39% in FY15 as compared to 37% in FY14, while the EBIT margins rose 23% during the 2015 fiscal year against 20% in 2014 fiscal year.
Leading cost position as compared to peers (Source: Company Reports)
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Outlook: Guidance: The group is investing on future cutbacks at Telfer as the Telfer Future Options Study showed positive results. Lihir Pit Optimization Pre-Feasibility Study has scope to deliver more value benefitting from the group’s efforts of reducing development costs. Newcrest estimates its gold production to be in the range of 2.4 to 2.6 million ounces, while the copper production is forecasted to be in the range of 80 to 90 thousand tonnes for FY16. The All-In Sustaining Cost expenditure is projected to be in the range of $2,650 million to $ 2,950 million, while the exploration expenditure is estimated to be in the range of $60 million to $70 million during FY16.
2016 Fiscal year guidance by segment (Source: Company Reports)
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Stock Performance: The shares of Newcrest Mining have been witnessing a range bound trade during this year, delivering a negative year to date returns of over 0.3%. However, the stock fell more than 26% over the last three months, owing to falling commodity prices, and three fatalities at sites during the year. On the other hand, Newcrest has built a solid portfolio base and has planned a pipeline of developments and explorations in the coming years. Newcrest took initiatives to address its fatalities by launching a “NewSafe program” and intends to decrease major hazards and reduce potential Incidents. Moreover, the gold prices are expected to be more stable as compared to the copper prices in the coming months, offering some support to NCM.
NCM Daily Chart (Source - Thomson Reuters)
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Based on the foregoing, we recommend a “BUY” to Newcrest Mining at the current price levels of $10.65.
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