This report is an updated version of the report published on 25 March 2026 at 3:45 PM AEDT.

Lovisa Holdings Limited (ASX: LOV)

Company Overview: Lovisa Holdings Limited (ASX: LOV) is an Australia-based specialist fast fashion jewelry retailer. The company and its subsidiaries are primarily involved in the retail sale of fashion jewelry and accessories. The company is also focused on designing, developing, sourcing, and merchandising all its branded products.

Recommendation Rationale – SELL at AUD 22.795

• Technical Standpoint: LOV share price is trading close to the R1 level recommended on 16 March 2026. In addition, the share price trend structure showed clear lower highs and lower lows since the September peak, which has established a downward trend.
• Weak Underlying Demand Reflected in Soft Comparable Sales: Despite strong headline revenue growth, Lovisa reported only 2.2% comparable store sales growth in H1 FY26 and 1.6% in early 2H FY26, indicating that underlying demand remains subdued and growth is not being driven by existing store productivity.
• Over-reliance on Store Expansion to Drive Growth: The company’s revenue growth is largely supported by aggressive store rollouts, with 85 new stores added during the H1 FY26, suggesting that expansion—not organic growth—is the primary driver, which may become increasingly difficult to sustain over time.
• Loss-making New Venture Adds Execution Risk: The company’s new brand, Jewells, is currently in a start-up phase and reported an EBIT loss of AU$10.8mn in H1 FY26, which is diluting overall profitability and introduces additional execution risk to the business.
• Exposure to Softening Discretionary Consumer Demand: As a fashion jewellery retailer, Lovisa is inherently exposed to non-essential consumer spending, which is typically more vulnerable during periods of macroeconomic uncertainty, inflationary pressure, or weakening consumer sentiment, posing a risk to sales momentum going forward.

Daily Price Chart

 (Daily Technical Chart; Source: REFINITIV)

Valuation Methodology: Price/Cash Flow Multiple Approach (FY Jun'27E) (Illustrative)

The stock might trade at a slight premium to peers given the continued momentum in new store openings, pricing power in the affordable fashion jewellery segment, and visible earnings growth. For conducting the valuation, following peers  have been considered - Kogan.com Ltd (ASX: KGN), Nick Scali Ltd (ASX: NCK), and Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE).

Given the stock is trading close to its R1 level, macroeconomic conditions, risks associated, it is prudent to sell the stock at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current market price of AUD 22.795, as of 25 March 2026, at 3:10 PM AEDT.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 25 March 2026. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.

Note 5: Dividend Yield may vary as per the stock price movement. 

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: In general, it is a level to protect further losses in case of any unfavourable movement in the stock prices.