Mid-Cap

Is it time to buy Veda Group Ltd?

August 04, 2015 | Team Kalkine
Is it time to buy Veda Group Ltd?

Veda Group Ltd (ASX: VED) reported an 11% revenue increase on a year over year basis (yoy) to $163 million for the first half of 2015, driven by all of its segments, especially B2C and marketing services. Veda group’s revenues from Australia rose 11.2% yoy to $144.3 million during the first half of the period, while the international revenues increased by 10% yoy to $18.7 million. Accordingly, the group’s EBITDA rose 10.4% yoy to $69.3 million as the increase in revenues led to the Operating cost increase as well. The growing support staff for Comprehensive Credit Reporting (CCR), acquisition costs and the execution of equity incentive scheme led to the rising costs. Consequently, the statutory net profit after tax increased to $38.1 million from pro forma first half of 2014 fiscal year of $33.8 million. The company derived 85% of its first half of 2015 revenue from “click revenue” through online.


1H15 revenues mainly driven by the organic growth (Source: Company Reports)
 
As per the segment highlights, the Consumer Risk & Identity revenue witnessed an 8% yoy increase to $52.6 million, boosted by the growth for Fraud and Identity Solutions, Verify and Consumer Credit Risk products. The increasing demand for Fraud and Identity Solutions was mainly coming from IDMatrix and fraud detection solutions. The antimony laundering (AML) and counter-terrorism financing (CTF) regulatory requirements generated demand for the group’s IDMatrix and fraud detection solutions. Verify solutions was mainly driven from the customers from financial services segment, in which Veda has developed solid presence.
 
The Commercial Risk & Information Services, revenue soared 7.5% yoy to $67.4 million driven by Commercial and Property Solutions (CPS) as well as Commercial Risk. PPSR multisearch products, Trading History and Scored Enquiry products demand led to the increase in the segment. Moreover, synergies from Kingsway acquisition also supported the segment.
 
B2C and Marketing rallied 29.9% yoy to $24.3 million supported by solid consumer credit products from carhistory.com.au and lead generation activity related to the national tenancy database. The group’s digital marketing efforts to its present customers led to the demand for Inivio. Moreover, the synergies from Datalicious and The Prospect Shop acquisitions as well as Veda’s investments in several products drove the overall segment.
 

Core business growth drivers (Source: Company reports)
 
 
Outlook
Veda estimates ongoing growth from its Fraud and Identity Solutions segment supported by IDMatrix and fraud detection solutions. The AML and CTF regulatory requirements will also continue to boost its revenues, as consumers are compelled to buy Veda’s products, given its domination in the consumer credit department in Australia. The demand from financial services customers will be strong further driving Verify sales. The group’s new Comprehensive Credit Reporting (CCR) would enable the company to enhance its product offerings and broaden the usage of its customers.
 
The company’s business mix might changes towards customer driven business, and the growing trend of B2C and Marketing Services is expected to continue. On an overall note, the firm estimates its revenues to grow at an average growth of its prior two years.  Veda had delivered revenue growth for more than twenty consecutive years. Despite of making acquisitions, the group has been generating solid core business growth and also well experienced to derive synergies from its acquisitions. Veda estimates to generate its operating EBITDA to be around lower side of the double digit growth for the fiscal year 2015, as compared to its pro forma EBITDA of $129.0 million in the prior fiscal year. The group estimates to maintain strong cash flow generation and intends to improve its dividend payout ratio in the range of 50% and 70% of NPAT.
 
The shares of Veda Group Ltd(ASX:VED) had delivered over 7% year to date returns, and rallied over 5.2% during the last three months, as compared to the broader S&P/ASX 200 index decline of over 2%. Meanwhile, the stock surged over 8% in just last four weeks, and we believe that the stock had delivered its best at these levels. Despite Veda group’s solid customer nominations, growing market share and regulatory drivers, we believe that the stock is trading at a relatively higher valuations. Veda group is trading at a P/E ratio of 22.63x, and has a dividend yield of just 1.63%.
 
 
Based on the foregoing, we give an “Expensive” recommendation to the stock at the current price levels of  $2.43, and would review the stock later. 



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