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Is it Prudent to Book Profit in this Materials Stock- AOP

Aug 19, 2021 | Team Kalkine
Is it Prudent to Book Profit in this Materials Stock- AOP

 

 

Apollo Consolidated Limited

AOP Details

Exploration Update: Apollo Consolidated Limited (ASX: AOP) is a gold exploration company with a portfolio of tenements led by the Lake Rebecca Gold project in Western Australia. In a recent exploration update, the company confirmed that the drill hole - MET004, the first of six diamond drill holes drilled, has delivered an exceptional gold hit of 75.8m @ 4.64g/t Au.

Q4FY21 Performance Highlights:

  • During the June 2021 quarter, the company made significant progress in the development of Lake Rebecca Gold Project and stepped-up exploration drilling in parallel with progressing project technical study works.
  • The net cash used in operating activities stood at $585k in Q4FY21, taking the total FY21 operating cash outflow to $1.45 million.
  • The company is well funded, with a cash balance of $36.7 million as of 30 June 2021.

Financial Metrics (Source: Analysis by Kalkine Group)

Key Risks:

  • Geological Risk- The company is exposed to geological risk where it needs to have a regular quality and quantity check from a geologist. Any negative report could impact its operations.
  • COVID-19 Uncertainties: The restrictions and the lockdowns associated with COVID-19 pandemic could disrupt the company’s operations.

Outlook: Looking ahead, the company is focused on MRE expansion through multiple pathways via an aggressive drilling campaign. The company is estimating conservative MRE to report optimised pit shells at A$2,250/oz price.

Stock Recommendation:

The stock of AOP is trading above its average 52-weeks' levels of $0.267-$0.395. The stock of AOP gave a positive return of ~22.58% in the past nine months and a positive return of ~20.63% in the past three months. On a TTM basis, the stock of AOP is trading at a Price/Book multiple of 3.6x, higher than the industry median (Basic Materials) of 2.7x, implying overvaluation. Considering the current trading levels, technical levels as mentioned below, valuation on a TTM basis, the recent rally in the stock price, uncertainty surrounding the impact of COVID-19 pandemic, we suggest investors to book profit and give a 'Sell' rating on the stock at the current market price of $0.380, as on 18 August 2021.

Technical Note: On the daily chart, AOP stock price witnessed a sharp rally from the low of $0.27 and recently made of high of $0.395 level on 13 August 2021. Prices are currently hovering near horizontal trend line resistance zone at $0.392 and continuously sustaining below the trend line resistance level. Moreover, the momentum oscillator RSI (14) is trading at ~66.20 level and formed a negative divergence indicating a possibility of the downside correction from the current level. An important support level for the stock, is placed at $0.345, while the key resistance level is placed at $0.392.

 

AOP Daily Technical Chart, Data Source: REFINITIV

Note: The purple color line in the chart shows RSI (14-period)

Note 1: The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV

Note 2: Investment decisions should be made depending on the investors' appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. Investors can consider exiting from the stock if the Target Price mentioned as per the analysis has been achieved and subject to the factors discussed above alongside support levels provided.


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