This report is an updated version of the report published on 2 March 2026 at 11:55 AM AEDT.

Genesis Minerals Limited (ASX: GMD) 

Company Overview: Genesis Minerals Limited (ASX: GMD) is engaged in gold mining, project development and exploration activities in the Leonora region of Western Australia. The company is primarily focused on the prolific Leonora District. Its assets include high-grade Laverton and Leonora deposits, two operational mills, and acquired Focus assets.

Recommendation Rationale – SELL at AUD 8.070

• Technical Standpoint: GMD share price has surpassed the R1 level recommended on 3 February 2026. The 14-day RSI currently stands at approximately 61.04, nearing the overbought zone. This upward move raises the risk of short-term consolidation or downside retracement.
• Rising Cost Base: AISC increased 8% YoY to AU$2,578/oz in H1 FY26 (vs AU$2,383/oz in H1 FY25). Despite strong gold prices masking it, cost inflation is evident. If gold prices soften, margins could compress quickly.
• Overvalued Multiples: On a forward 12-month basis – key valuation multiples (EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA, Price/Earnings, and Price/Cash Flow) are higher than the Basic Materials’ sector.
• Growth Capex Is Expanding Aggressively: Growth capital expenditure is expanding materially, with Genesis investing AU$134.9mn in H1 FY26 and subsequently lifting FY26 growth capex guidance to AU$220–240mn from AU$150–170mn. This represents a step-up of more than 40% in planned capital intensity, reflecting the acceleration of development activities, particularly around Tower Hill. While this positions the company for higher future production, it also increases operational and financial risk.

Daily Price Chart

 (Daily Technical Chart; Source: REFINITIV)

Valuation Methodology: Price/Cash Flow Multiple Approach (FY Jun'27E) (Illustrative)

The stock might trade at a slight premium to peers given the record gold production in Q2 FY26, 454% YoY growth in FY25 EBITDA, and longer term production targets. For conducting the valuation, following peers  have been considered - Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST), Perseus Mining Ltd (ASX: PRU), and Catalyst Metals Ltd (ASX: CYL).

Given the stock has surpassed its R1 level, risks associated, and commodity price volatility, it is prudent to sell the stock at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current market price of AUD 8.07, as of 2 March 2026, at 11:20 AM AEDT.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 2 March 2026. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: In general, it is a level to protect further losses in case of any unfavourable movement in the stock prices.